Institutional Momentum Fuels Bitcoin’s Return to $91,000

Bitcoin reclaimed the $91,000 level over the weekend for the first time since mid-December, driven by a surge of institutional activity that contrasts sharply with prevailing retail sentiment. As the Fear & Greed Index signals "Extreme Fear" among the broader investor base, major financial players are initiating a notable shift in market direction. The sustainability of this rally as traditional markets reopen on Monday remains a key focus.

The price recovery coincides with significant regulatory movements. In response to a suspicious trading incident on the Polymarket platform—where a trader turned approximately $32,000 into over $400,000 just before a Venezuelan government change was announced—U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres has proposed new legislation. The "Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act 2026" aims to prevent insider trading on decentralized prediction markets.

Furthermore, a potential vote on the "Clarity Act" is scheduled for January 15 in the U.S. Congress. This long-awaited bill seeks to definitively classify digital assets as either securities or commodities, a clarification institutional investors have consistently demanded.

ETF Flows Signal a Powerful Reversal

Following two weeks of subdued activity at the end of 2025, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) demonstrated a robust resurgence on the first trading day of 2026. January 2 witnessed inflows of $471.3 million into these products, marking the strongest single day since mid-November. BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone attracted $287.4 million. Combined with Ethereum ETFs, the sector drew $646 million in a single day, pushing the cumulative trading volume past the two-trillion-dollar threshold.

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These figures suggest asset managers are recalibrating their allocations for the first quarter, seemingly undeterred by the pessimistic mood among private investors.

Major Holders Accumulate Amid Market Caution

On-chain data reveals a significant divergence between mainstream sentiment and the actions of large-scale investors. Major Bitcoin wallets added over 10,000 BTC to their holdings last week. Stablecoin issuer Tether continues to expand its position, purchasing approximately 8,888 BTC on December 31. The company now ranks as the fifth-largest Bitcoin holder globally, with a stash valued at around $8.42 billion.

Technical Indicators Present a Mixed Picture

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has triggered a historically bullish signal known as a "Golden Cross," where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day line. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads at 72, placing the asset in overbought territory and making short-term consolidation a possibility. The weekend price surge also forced a short squeeze, liquidating roughly $58.3 million in short seller positions.

Whether Bitcoin can maintain its footing above $91,000 will become clearer with Monday's market open. The interplay between ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and renewed institutional demand is likely to dictate the near-term trajectory, potentially leading to further gains or a period of volatile sideways movement.