Intel's 460% Rally Hinges on 18A Foundry Yields as Earnings Test Looms
Published on 07/09/2026 at 07:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Intel has ridden a wave of Foundry hype higher, more than quadrupling from its 52-week low of €16.69 to a recent €94.06. But the past seven trading sessions have told a different story: shares have tumbled nearly 16% as fresh reports emerged that the company's critically important 18A manufacturing process may not deliver profitable yields until late 2026 or even 2027. The stock now sits more than 24% below its June 30 peak of €124.58, and the market is asking a simple question: can Intel turn technical milestones into real revenue?
The numbers capture the whiplash. Over twelve months Intel has gained more than 460% from its nadir, yet the 30-day annualized volatility sits at 94% — a level that screams uncertainty. The relative strength index has cooled to 41, short of oversold territory but signaling that the selling wave hasn't fully exhausted itself. The 50-day moving average has slipped to €102.12, and the stock now trades roughly 8% below that near-term trendline. Meanwhile the 200-day average stands at just €53.99, underscoring how extreme the rally has been.
Optimists point to a series of structural tailwinds that justify the run-up. The U.S. government holds a 10% stake in Intel after a $8.9 billion equity injection disclosed in a 2025 SEC filing, and it has committed up to $8.5 billion in direct CHIPS Act grants plus investment tax credits. Washington’s financial engagement gives Intel a political advantage no rival can match. On the customer front, Microsoft and Amazon Web Services have placed orders for custom AI chips built on 18A — powerful endorsements that lend credibility to the Foundry story. Intel has also started expanding its Santa Clara campus for EUV photomask production, targeting the 18A-P and 14A nodes, and its Fab 52 in Chandler has already been running full 18A production since October 2025. New products such as the Nova Lake desktop CPUs with up to 52 cores, the Gaudi-3 AI accelerator, and the Crescent Island data-center GPU are all on track for the second half of 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intel?
Yet the bear case is equally well-founded, and the market is now weighing it with increasing seriousness. Intel’s Foundry division lost roughly $7 billion in 2023, then continued bleeding billions in 2024 and 2025, with the first quarter of 2026 alone adding another $2.4 billion in operating losses. Since 2021 the company has poured more than $100 billion into global manufacturing expansion, and the break-even horizon keeps receding. Reports that 18A yields remain below the threshold for commercial profitability until late 2026 or 2027 directly undercut the core bull thesis. Meanwhile, TSMC and Samsung hold decades of experience and scale. Intel has not yet proven that external customers will adopt its foundry services in meaningful volume — the revenue from outside clients still lags far behind internal demand.
The Apple rumor that first ignited the rally earlier this year remains unconfirmed. Former President Donald Trump said Apple had committed to work with Intel on domestic chip production, but neither company has formally verified the claim. Nvidia is reportedly evaluating the 18A process but has not advanced to volume qualification, which analysts interpret as a sign of lingering yield or performance issues. The average Wall Street price target stands at €88.42 — below the current share price — a rare divergence that suggests analysts are pricing based on existing fundamentals while the market is betting on an option: that Intel becomes America’s answer to TSMC.
All of this converges on July 23, when Intel reports second-quarter results after the market close. That earnings call will be the moment Foundry rhetoric meets hard numbers: external customer revenue, yield improvements, and the trajectory of operating losses from the new manufacturing nodes. If Intel can demonstrate tangible progress, the bull case gains a powerful new leg. If the numbers disappoint, the stock’s 460% rally may prove to have been built on speculation rather than substance. Until then, volatility remains the only certainty.
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