Intel’s Foundry Ambitions Face Their First Real Test as Chip Stocks Cool
Published on 07/03/2026 at 05:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The semiconductor sector’s torrid run hit a wall this week, and no stock felt the whiplash more acutely than Intel. The chip giant tumbled 7.25% on Thursday to 103.56?EUR (with some data feeds showing a close of 105.24?EUR), dragging its weekly loss to 6.85%. After a 12-month surge that has more than quintupled the share price—gains ranging from 452.79% to 459% depending on the measure—the pullback feels like a long-overdue reality check.
The sell-off wasn’t confined to Intel. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index cratered more than 7% on July 2, triggered by fears that hyperscalers such as Meta could begin dumping excess AI computing capacity onto the market. That worry, paired with a weaker-than-expected US jobs report—just 57,000 new positions created in June—sapped risk appetite across high-beta names. With an annualized volatility hovering near 90%, Intel is precisely the kind of stock that gets punished when sentiment sours.
Yet for all the short-term pain, the narrative around Intel remains anchored to its audacious foundry transformation. HSBC, one of the most bullish voices on the Street, recently doubled its price target on the stock to $200 and reiterated a “Buy” rating, arguing that Intel’s contract manufacturing arm is “too good to ignore.” The bank expects the first external customer engagement for the foundry business to materialise in the second half of 2026, with Alphabet, Tesla and SpaceX all floated as potential partners. The 18A process node is seen as the critical inflection point.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intel?
The government’s over €8.9?billion CHIPS Act investment, which handed the White House roughly 10% non-voting equity in Intel, adds a layer of political ballast. The National Economic Council has characterised the move as a “very special circumstance” and not a precedent for nationalisation. Nvidia chipped in another €5?billion late last year. That combined backing provides a structural floor for the stock—even as the foundry division bleeds cash. In the first quarter of 2026, the unit generated $5.4?billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $2.4?billion, underscoring the cost of building capacity to rival TSMC.
While the market focuses on AI chips and cutting-edge nodes, Intel is pragmatically tapping an older vein. For the third quarter, the company plans to restart production of its 13th? and 14th?generation CPUs, targeting the Chinese DIY market where demand for DDR4 platforms remains stubbornly high. It’s not a strategy—it’s a bridge, designed to generate cash flow while the foundry consumes billions in capex.
Technically, the stock sits in neutral territory with an RSI of 48.9, and the 50-day moving average of 99.38?EUR sits just below the current price. The real catalyst will be the second-quarter earnings report due at the end of July, where the market will finally see whether the foundry promises are translating into paying orders. Intel has guided for second-half revenue between $13.8?billion and $14.8?billion—a range that, if hit, could quiet the bears. Until then, the stock remains caught between a once-in-a-generation transformation and the brutal arithmetic of expectations that have simply run too far, too fast.
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Intel Stock: New Analysis - 3 July
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