Intel’s High-NA Endorsement and TSMC’s Reserve Highlight the Two Faces of ASML’s €45 Billion Bet
Published on 07/20/2026 at 19:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The adoption of ASML’s most advanced lithography machine is shaping up to be a study in contrasts. While Intel has thrown its weight behind the €400 million High-NA EUV system, using it for volume production of its Panther Lake chips on the 18A process, TSMC remains unimpressed. A senior TSMC executive, Kevin Zhang, described the tool as extremely expensive and confirmed his company would not deploy it for now. In the first half of 2026, ASML shipped just three High-NA units, a clear signal that even the largest chipmakers are hesitating before committing to the industry’s most complex and costly piece of equipment.
Intel’s enthusiasm, however, is unmistakable. The chipmaker received its first High-NA machine in 2024 at its Hillsboro, Oregon, facility, and its finance chief reported that Panther Lake volumes surged six- to seven-fold quarter-on-quarter in Q2. This real-world validation from a major customer provides a powerful counterweight to TSMC’s caution and underscores ASML’s near-monopoly in EUV lithography — the technology essential for manufacturing the world’s most advanced semiconductors.
That monopoly is proving immensely profitable. ASML smashed expectations in the second quarter, posting a net profit of €2.92 billion on revenue of €9.326 billion, a 21% year-on-year gain that handily beat consensus estimates of €8.8 billion in sales and €2.6 billion in net income. Gross margin came in at 54%, while operating profit rose 30% to €3.46 billion, pushing the operating margin from 35% to 37%. CEO Christophe Fouquet pointed to an exceptionally strong order book, with advanced logic chip sales growing over 25% and memory revenue surging more than 75% — both driven by the insatiable demand for AI-chip manufacturing tools.
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This momentum has prompted ASML to raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance for the second time this year, from a prior range of €36?billion–€40?billion to €43?billion–€45?billion. To meet that demand, the company plans to expand EUV and DUV production capacity by 30% next year, targeting 85 Low-NA EUV systems in 2027 versus 65 this year, and around 130 DUV immersion units. A further 30% capacity increase for 2028 is under evaluation. As a gesture of commitment to its workforce, the Dutch lithography specialist is offering its roughly 45,000 employees a one-off stock grant worth €20,000 each, conditional on remaining with the company between 2027 and 2030. More than half of ASML’s 44,500-strong global staff are based in the Netherlands, with another 8,500 in the US.
With a market capitalisation hovering around $700?billion, ASML is increasingly viewed as a candidate to become Europe’s first trillion-dollar company. Analysts at Barclays, Susquehanna and Bernstein have set 12-month price targets above $2,600 per share, implying roughly 49% upside from current levels. Bernstein specifically assigned a €2,500 target, while JPMorgan stands at $2,400. The stock trades at 38 times expected 2027 earnings. Yet investors are not unanimously bullish: Allspring Global Investments trimmed its ASML holding by 13.4% in the first quarter, and Allen Investment Management reduced its stake by 17.6%. On the other side, Arrowstreet Capital boosted its position by 195.8%, UBS Asset Management by 153.1%, and AQR Capital by 141.1%. Institutions collectively own about 26% of the shares.
Risks remain prominent. The proposed MATCH Act could further restrict exports to China, which is set to account for around 20% of ASML’s 2026 revenue. Analysts also flag potential cooling in capital spending by large cloud providers, supply-chain bottlenecks, and competition from emerging Chinese chip technology. At the same time, tailwinds are building: memory manufacturers SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron are shifting from DUV to EUV, and Elon Musk’s planned Terafab facility could become a new customer.
The stock’s recent price action reflects these crosscurrents. ASML shares traded at €1,528.00, about 12.6% below the 52-week high of €1,748.00 reached in late June. Yet the year-to-date performance tells a different story: the stock has gained 66.71% since January, illustrating how deeply the AI-driven demand for lithography equipment has already been priced in by the market. The gap to the 50-day moving average of €1,508.91 is a mere 1.27%, suggesting a period of stabilisation after the recent pullback. For ASML, the path to the trillion-dollar club depends on whether its customers can fully embrace the new technology generation — and how smoothly the capacity expansion plays out against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty.
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