IonQ’s Rally to $70 Masks Deep Analyst Divide and 22% Short Interest

The quantum computing upstart IonQ has pushed its share price to within striking distance of $70, but the stock’s trajectory is caught between wildly divergent analyst targets and an unusually heavy short position. Rosenblatt Securities maintains a $100 price objective, while Morgan Stanley pegs fair value at just $48.50 — a spread so wide it underscores the fierce debate over IonQ’s future. Benchmark sits in the middle at $65. That the average analyst target of $68.63 lands almost exactly on the current price of $68.97 tells its own story.

First-quarter 2026 numbers fuel the argument on both sides. Revenue rocketed 754.7% to $64.67 million, yet the adjusted EBITDA loss widened to nearly $97 million. For the full year, management sees revenue of $260–$270 million and an EBITDA loss of $310–$330 million. The loss per share of $0.34 came in well below the $0.26 estimate, a reminder that growth and cash burn are moving in lockstep.

IonQ is also rewriting its playbook. No longer content to build only its own quantum systems, the company plans to sell specialized components to other hardware makers, positioning itself as a foundational supplier to the entire industry. That strategy hinges on the planned $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology, which cleared a shareholder vote and is expected to close in the second or third quarter of 2026. The deal aims to secure IonQ’s supply chain for systems with up to 10,000 qubits. On the technology front, IonQ recently set a world record for two-qubit gate fidelity at 99.99%.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IonQ?

Meanwhile, the company sat out the latest wave of federal largesse. The U.S. Department of Commerce distributed roughly $2 billion in CHIPS Act funding to nine quantum firms, including IBM, D-Wave, Rigetti, and Infleqtion. IonQ was not among them. But investors appear to be looking past the snub, focusing instead on the vertical integration drive and a backlog of remaining performance obligations that now stands at $470 million. IonQ is also moving ahead with a commercial radar system for automated ground deformation measurement from space.

That focus has pushed the stock into technically overheated territory. Thursday’s 5.46% gain to $68.97 followed an intraday high of $71.47. Volume hit 31.5 million shares, 19% above the average. The relative strength index of 70.69 signals overbought conditions, with the price trading 30.2% above its 20-day moving average ($52.79) and 44.5% above the 200-day line ($47.57). Immediate resistance sits at $76, support at $60.

The high short interest of 22.4% adds a speculative edge. If the buying pressure continues, short sellers may be forced to cover their positions, accelerating the rally. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 10 recommend buying, six say hold, and one says sell. Zacks ranks it a “Sell” with a 4-out-of-5 rating, noting the negative price-to-earnings ratio and no profitability in sight.

All eyes now turn to the August quarterly report, which will test whether revenue momentum can keep pace with the company’s spending ambitions — and whether the bull or bear case prevails.

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IonQ Stock: New Analysis - 29 May

Fresh IonQ information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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