IREN’s Bundey Delay Costs It a $19 Billion AI Prize — and Investors Are Losing Patience
Published on 07/08/2026 at 03:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The clock is ticking for IREN. Anthropic, the fast-rising AI developer, is scouring Australia for at least 1.4 gigawatts of computing capacity, with a hard deadline of end-2027 for the first gigawatt. The budget: up to $15 billion. IREN made the shortlist, sparking a brief rally in its shares. But the company’s flagship Bundey project — an 800-megawatt campus in South Australia — won’t deliver power until 2028, a full year after Anthropic needs it.
That timing gap has already cost IREN a major prize. Rival TeraWulf locked in a $19 billion lease agreement with Anthropic, while IREN walked away empty-handed. The market, never patient with execution lags, responded brutally. By Tuesday’s close, IREN shares had tumbled to €34.88, adding to a monthly rout of roughly 32%. Earlier in the session they briefly traded at €35.61 after a 7% single-day drop.
Technical and Financial Strain
The selloff has left the stock nearly 50% below its last annual high. The relative strength index now stands at 35 — on the cusp of oversold territory. Annualized volatility remains extreme at almost 87%, and the share price has sunk well below its 50-day moving average of €47.03.
The financial picture is no brighter. IREN’s AI-cloud revenue doubled to $33.6 million in the fiscal third quarter of 2026, but total revenue still missed analyst estimates by roughly 34%. The company posted a net loss of $247.8 million, a chunk of which came from a non-cash impairment charge. Meanwhile, the pivot from Bitcoin mining to high-performance computing is swallowing cash: IREN is targeting five gigawatts of global capacity and a recurring annual revenue run rate of $3.7 billion by end-2026, backed by new Nvidia chips.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying IREN?
But the transition is far from seamless. Investment bank Needham has trimmed its near-term estimates, noting that meaningful revenue from new mega-deals won’t flow until the second half of the fiscal year. The ramp-up in AI income still can’t offset the decline in crypto-mining operations, which IREN is deliberately scaling back.
Institutional Patience Wears Thin
The long lead times for data centre construction are beginning to spook big investors. Rockefeller Capital Management slashed its stake in IREN by nearly 80% in the latest quarter. The message is clear: billion-dollar buildouts require deep pockets and a multi-year horizon, and not every institution has the stomach for that kind of wait.
Despite the gloom, the structural demand for green AI capacity remains robust. South Australia is targeting 100% renewable energy by 2027, which gives Bundey a strong long-term locational advantage. But that advantage is irrelevant if the first wave of Anthropic’s spending bypasses IREN entirely.
IREN at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the company must rely on its existing billion-dollar contracts with Microsoft and Nvidia to generate hard cash flow and prove its execution chops. The Australian infrastructure is still being built, and until the power flows, the scepticism will linger. In the breakneck world of AI infrastructure, one year can feel like an eternity — and IREN is paying the price for being a step behind.
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