Italgas refines 2026 guidance, shares in focus on Borsa Italiana

By Thomas Klein, Operations & Strategy desk. Reviewed prior to publication on 2026-06-26, 10:56.

Italgas (IT0005211237) sharpened its medium-term financial guidance this week as it integrates the Greek gas distributor DEPA Infrastructure, according to its latest strategic update and investor materials. The Milan-listed group is a key constituent of Italy’s FTSE MIB index and trades on Borsa Italiana.

New 2026 targets and DEPA integration

In its most recent strategy presentation, Italgas confirmed a sizeable investment plan through 2029 and detailed 2026 milestones following the completion of the DEPA Infrastructure acquisition in Greece in 2023, which expanded its regulated asset base beyond Italy. Management continues to forecast cumulative capex of roughly EUR 8.6 billion over the 2023-2029 period, with around EUR 4.6 billion earmarked for Italian gas distribution and approximately EUR 1.1 billion for Greek networks, focused mainly on digitalization, network extensions and repurposing for renewable gases.

For 2026, the group still aims for a regulated asset base (RAB) in the range of EUR 12 billion, up from around EUR 10 billion at the start of the current plan window, helped by ongoing replacements and new connections in both Italy and Greece. Net profit attributable to shareholders is indicated to grow at a mid-single-digit compound annual rate from the 2022 baseline, underpinned by tariff-regulated returns and operating efficiencies derived from Italgas’s proprietary digital platform for network management.

Dividend policy and analyst view

Italgas reiterates a progressive dividend policy, targeting an annual increase in the per-share payout of 4 to 6 percent over the plan period, subject to regulatory decisions and cash flow generation. The company paid a dividend of EUR 0.317 per share on 2023 earnings in May 2024, continuing a track record of annual increases since its listing after the spin-off from Snam in 2016.

According to analyst consensus compiled by MarketScreener, most covering brokers rate Italgas between Hold and Buy, with an average 12-month price target implying a modest upside from current levels and reflecting the perceived stability of regulated gas distribution versus more cyclical energy peers such as Enel and Eni. Recent research notes highlight the visibility of earnings, but also point to regulatory risk in Italy’s ARERA framework and the execution challenge of repurposing parts of the network for hydrogen and biomethane blending.

How Italgas makes its money

Italgas generates the bulk of its revenue from regulated gas distribution, operating more than 80,000 kilometers of pipelines and serving roughly 8 million end customers across Italy and Greece. The company’s remuneration is set by national regulators based on the value of its regulated asset base, incentivizing network investments and efficiency rather than commodity price exposure. Additional smaller contributions come from energy efficiency services and digital solutions for third-party utilities, leveraging technologies developed for its own network operations.

Where the shares trade now

Italgas shares (IT0005211237) trade on Borsa Italiana at around recent levels close to their 12-month average, with the latest available price data indicating a market capitalization in the mid-single-digit billion euro range as of the most recent session.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment recommendation or an invitation to buy or sell securities. All information is based on sources considered reliable, but completeness and accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors should conduct their own research and, where appropriate, seek professional advice before making investment decisions.