ITM Power: A 50% Plunge, a Linde Board Swap, and a £46.5m State Bet Hang in the Balance

The past week has thrown a tangle of cross-currents at ITM Power investors. A 42% monthly slide has dragged the shares to €1.30, near their 100-day moving average, while the company juggles a looming government grant decision, a quiet boardroom change from its largest industrial partner, and a pair of early-stage collaboration announcements. For a stock that still sits 79% higher year-to-date, the next few days could determine whether the bullish narrative regains traction or collapses further.

A New Linde Face in the Boardroom

On 24 June, Linde swapped its representative on the ITM Power board. Oleg Williamson stepped in as a non-executive director, replacing Matthias von Plotho, who had held the seat since January 2025. Williamson is no engineer: he joined Linde in 2022 as executive director and assistant treasurer, and previously ran corporate treasury operations for large industrial groups across three continents. He holds no shares in ITM Power. The appointment suggests Linde is prioritising financial discipline over technical oversight as ITM Power races to scale its electrolyser manufacturing. No new orders, financial targets or guidance changes accompanied the announcement.

The Grant Decision That Could Unlock a Gigafactory

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?

All eyes are now on the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. By the end of this week, or at least by June 2026, the government is expected to rule on a £46.5m grant to help ITM Power build an automated production line with a gigawatt annual capacity, based on the new “Chronos” platform. That sum would sit alongside a £40m equity commitment from Great British Energy secured in April, forming a state-backed package worth £86.5m. The total investment for the factory is budgeted at up to £120m over three years, with commercial production targeted for 2028. Crucially, the grant is still under the statutory “subsidy control” process, which is scheduled to conclude in June 2026. Only after that can the formal contract be signed. Disbursements are tied to milestones and expenditure verification.

Two Partnerships, No Commercial Terms Yet

A few days before the board change, ITM Power announced a strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions to develop and operate industrial green hydrogen plants in the UK. The first project is the 15 MW “Cromarty” scheme in Scotland, which already secured funding in the first UK hydrogen allocation round. A final investment decision for Cromarty is expected in December 2026.

Meanwhile, a separate memorandum of understanding with DB Systemtechnik – a subsidiary of Deutsche Bahn – was signed on 24 June. The pair will explore green energy solutions for rail and infrastructure, starting with a feasibility study on deploying ITM electrolysers at Deutsche Bahn sites. No contract value or final investment commitment was disclosed.

For a market that has watched the stock halve from its May 52-week high of €2.58, these early-stage collaborations offer promise but no near-term revenue. The shares closed Friday at €1.30, a modest 1.33% gain on the day but still 26% below their 50-day moving average of €1.76. The next technical floor lies at the 100-day average of €1.25. The relative strength index of 36.6 points to waning momentum without signalling extreme oversold conditions. Annualised 30-day volatility stands at nearly 99%, meaning any headline – especially this week’s grant outcome – is likely to trigger sharp moves.

ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Analyst Views Are Split Wide Open

Morgan Stanley maintains a buy rating and a 170-pence price target. Berenberg lifted its target to 110 pence in April and also rates the stock a buy, citing state backing as a validation of the technology. Goldman Sachs, however, slapped a sell rating and a 63-pence target earlier this month, underscoring the chasm between bullish and bearish bets on the hydrogen sector.

With the subsidy control process drawing to a close and a string of non-binding agreements already priced in, ITM Power finds itself at a crossroads. The grant decision this week could provide the clearest signal yet – not just for the shares, but for the credibility of the UK government’s hydrogen ambitions. For now, investors are waiting for concrete milestones, not memoranda of understanding.

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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 28 June

Fresh ITM Power information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

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