ITM Power: A Defence Deal, a Director's Buy, and a Stalled Subsidy — The Three Forces Warring for the Stock's Direction
Published on 07/05/2026 at 04:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Few stocks in the hydrogen space have bounced around as violently as ITM Power. The British electrolyser maker closed Friday at €1.48, up 2.35% on the day and 14.01% on the week, yet remains 42.55% below its 52-week high of €2.58 from late May. Over the past year, the shares have still doubled — a 104.14% gain — but the ride has been anything but smooth, with annualised 30-day volatility hitting 113.55%. The question now is whether a trio of fresh catalysts can finally give the stock some direction or whether it will remain stuck between a 50-day moving average of €1.75 (15.36% above today's price) and a 200-day average of €1.06 (39.84% below).
The most eye-catching development came from inside the boardroom. Sir Warren East, the former Rolls-Royce and ARM chief known for his turnaround pedigree, bought 172,000 ordinary shares in late June for roughly £197,000. It is his only holding in the company. Market watchers read the purchase as a loud vote of confidence — East stepped in just as the stock was nursing deep losses from its May peak. But even as the insider trade made headlines, a far bigger regulatory bottleneck remains unresolved.
That bottleneck centres on a ÂŁ46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), part of a broader ÂŁ86.5 million investment package. In the second quarter of 2026, Great British Energy took a 10.4% stake in ITM Power for ÂŁ40 million. The remaining grant money is stuck at the UK Competition and Markets Authority's Subsidy Advice Unit, with the final go-ahead needed before the company can build a new automated 1-gigawatt production line. The entire expansion plan hinges on that verdict.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Meanwhile, a second high-profile tie-up has added to the narrative. ITM Power signed a cooperation agreement with German defence contractor Rheinmetall to supply up to 50 megawatts of electrolyser capacity for the Giga PtX programme, which aims to produce synthetic fuels to NATO standards. The deal was the primary driver of this week's rally. Yet the agreement is still only a non-binding framework — no firm orders have been placed. Delivery also depends on partner Protium Green Solutions handling power supply, permits and distribution infrastructure. The bottom line: revenues from the partnership are not yet on the horizon.
On the operational front, the company is showing tangible progress. The order book has swelled to £152 million, with first-half revenue hitting a record £18 million. The share of profitable contracts in the backlog has climbed from 60% in April 2025 to 71% today. That still leaves 29% of older projects that need to be converted into revenue over the next 18 months. Cash on hand stands at £197.8 million, having burned just £9.2 million over the past twelve months. Management has lifted its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of £40–£43 million, underpinned by the standardisation push around the ALPHA-50 unit — a 50 MW electrolyser designed for large-scale projects. A design study with DB Systemtechnik, the engineering arm of Deutsche Bahn, is due to kick off shortly.
Analyst opinion remains as fractured as the stock's chart. Berenberg sees fair value at 200 pence, while Goldman Sachs retains a sell rating. The consensus target across the Street is just 131 pence. Simply Wall St bumped its own fair value estimate from £1.19 to £1.31 after the latest news. With targets ranging from £1.10 to £2.00, the wide dispersion reflects the binary nature of the stock: a successful CMA green light and conversion of the order book could lift it sharply; a rejection or further delay could send it sliding back towards the 200-day line at €1.06.
Technically, the RSI sits at 46.7, neutral. The shares are sandwiched between their short-term and long-term moving averages — directionless, waiting for a catalyst. The next moves will be determined by three events: the formal confirmation of the DESNZ grant, progress on converting the order book into invoiced sales, and whether the Rheinmetall framework matures into a binding contract. Together, they will decide whether Sir Warren East's personal bet pays off, or whether the stock's wild swings eventually grind to a lower low.
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