ITM Power: A Former ARM Chief’s Bet, a Defence Pact, and the £46.5m Subsidy on Which It All Hinges
Published on 07/06/2026 at 19:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Sir Warren East, the former chief executive of Rolls-Royce and ARM, has put his own money into ITM Power, buying 172,000 shares at a cost of around £197,000 in late June. The transaction, disclosed through a director-dealing filing with the London Stock Exchange, represents his entire holding in the Sheffield-based electrolyser maker. It is a gesture of personal conviction in a stock that has doubled since the start of the year despite trading with one of the highest volatilities in the hydrogen sector — annualised 30-day volatility stands at nearly 113 percent.
Yet the share price remains tethered to a single outstanding regulatory decision. ITM Power is waiting for the Subsidy Advice Unit of the Competition and Markets Authority to sign off on a £46.5 million grant pledged by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. Without that green light, the company cannot build its planned fully automated production line with a capacity of one gigawatt. The entire expansion plan — already backed by Great British Energy, which took a 10.4 percent stake for £40 million in the second quarter of 2026 — hinges on this ruling. For now, the stock sits at €1.46, down 1.69 percent on the day and 43.5 percent below its 52-week high of €2.58 reached on 29 May. The relative strength index of 45.7 points to a neutral technical picture, with the subsidy verdict expected to deliver the next major directional impetus.
Parallel to the insider purchase, ITM Power recently announced a cooperation agreement with German defence group Rheinmetall. The partnership will see ITM supply up to 50 megawatts of electrolyser capacity for Rheinmetall’s Giga-PtX programme, which aims to produce synthetic fuels to NATO standards. Several hundred production units are planned across Europe, each with an electrolyser capacity of up to 50 megawatts and an annual output of between 5,000 and 7,000 tonnes of e-fuel. The initial focus is on the UK market, with deliveries contingent on the involvement of partner Protium Green Solutions, which is responsible for securing power supply, permits, and distribution infrastructure. No concrete revenues have yet been tied to the deal.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
On the operational front, the core business is showing tangible progress. The order book has grown to £152 million, and first-half revenue hit a record £18 million. The quality of those orders is also improving: the share of profitable contracts rose from 60 percent in April 2025 to 71 percent today. Still, 29 percent of older projects need to be converted into revenue over the next 18 months. The balance sheet remains sturdy, with cash and equivalents of £197.8 million and a cash burn of just £9.2 million over the past twelve months. Management has lifted its revenue guidance for the 2026 financial year to a range of £40 million to £43 million, driven by the standardisation of the ALPHA-50 electrolyser — a 50-megawatt unit designed for large-scale projects.
These micro-level improvements are unfolding against a supportive policy backdrop in the UK. The government is restructuring the electricity market, planning to phase out the CO? price support mechanism for power generation from April 2028. At the same time, British carbon allowance prices have surged by roughly half to around ÂŁ65 per tonne, making gas-fired generation increasingly expensive. Since gas plants set the wholesale electricity price about 98 percent of the time, the cost pressure on fossil fuels is reinforcing the economic case for green hydrogen storage. The UK has also been awarding record volumes of low-carbon power capacity in recent renewable auctions, further deepening the long-term need for electrolysers.
The stock’s technical position reflects both the optimism and the uncertainty. Having recovered about 125 percent from its February low of €0.65, ITM Power now trades 37.1 percent above its 200-day moving average of €1.06 but 16.4 percent below its 50-day moving average of €1.74. That gap illustrates just how sharply investor sentiment has swung over the past year. On a monthly view the shares have cooled by some 11 percent, and the relative strength index sits at 46.8 — neutral territory, suggesting the consolidation phase may have room to run. The decisive catalyst, however, remains in the hands of the competition watchdog. Until the subsidy green light arrives, the stock is likely to remain caught between a strong secular story and an unresolved administrative bottleneck.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 6 July
Fresh ITM Power information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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