ITM Power: Why a £46.5m Grant and a New Platform Haven't Stopped the 40% Monthly Slide
29.06.2026 - 03:53:38 | boerse-global.de
The story of ITM Power right now is one of conflicting signals. On one hand, the electrolyser maker has a £86.5 million state-backed package in the pipeline, a next-generation platform promising 40% lower costs, and a tailwind from UK planning reforms. On the other, its shares have lost nearly half their value from the 52-week high of 2.58 euros touched at the end of May, closing Friday at 1.30 euros — a 17% weekly decline and a 43% monthly rout. The market is voting with its feet, and the outcome hinges on a single regulatory verdict.
That verdict belongs to the Competition and Markets Authority. The CMA's Subsidy Advice Unit must complete its assessment of a £46.5 million capital grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero by 30 June. The grant is part of a broader £86.5 million support package, with Great British Energy contributing a further £40 million via an equity stake that gives the state vehicle a 10.4% holding in ITM Power. The money is earmarked to overhaul the company's Sheffield manufacturing site into a fully automated gigawatt-scale production line. Industry participants are watching closely: political shifts in the British government have introduced an element of doubt about whether the final contract signing will proceed without friction.
Chronos: the cost-cutting platform that could re-rate the stock
While the market waits for the CMA's green light, ITM Power is pushing ahead with its next electrolyser generation. The new platform, named Chronos, is designed to replace the current Trident model in large-scale projects from 2028. The specs are ambitious: 10% higher efficiency, 40% lower manufacturing costs, and half the number of components. Fewer parts mean easier automation — a direct path to the kind of streamlined production that underpins the gigafactory investment thesis.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
Analyst price targets currently range from 110 pence to 170 pence, with the spread reflecting different views on how quickly Chronos will integrate into the global hydrogen supply chain. The faster the adoption, the higher the valuation. But with the stock trading at roughly 1.15 pounds (130 pence), even the midpoint of that range offers limited upside from current levels.
A planning reform that cuts both ways
The broader policy environment is a double-edged sword. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced plans to fast-track energy projects of "critical national importance" by limiting judicial reviews, with the aim of achieving a zero-emission electricity system by 2030. For ITM Power, fewer delays on infrastructure projects would mean shorter lead times for industrial-scale electrolyser installations. But the reform has drawn pushback from legal circles, who view the restriction on legal challenges as an erosion of the rule of law.
At the same time, energy prices are heading higher. Ofgem's price cap will rise 13% on 1 July, driven by elevated wholesale gas costs tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs tighten the screws on capital-intensive growth shares like ITM Power, as they stoke inflation and increase the likelihood of Bank of England rate hikes. Paradoxically, the same gas dependency provides the strongest long-term argument for the hydrogen economy.
Technicals under pressure, but a support zone beckons
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The stock's relative strength index sits at 36.6, edging towards oversold territory. Annualised 30-day volatility is nearly 99%, leaving little room for calm sessions. The next meaningful support is the 100-day moving average at 1.25 euros. Below that, the 200-day average at 1.04 euros acts as a longer-term anchor.
Short interest, which spiked in the middle of the month, will be a key driver of price action in the coming week. Whether the bears continue to pile in or start to cover will shape the direction as the CMA deadline approaches. On the positive side, the order backlog stands at around 152 million pounds, providing an operational foundation that could help rebuild confidence if the regulatory news breaks the right way.
A small but potentially significant catalyst sits on the horizon: the India-UK trade agreement taking effect on 15 July. The deal could create a framework for hydrogen technology exchange between the two countries, offering ITM Power a new route to market. For now, though, all eyes are on the CMA.
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