Judge Chhabria’s Shadow Hangs Over Bayer as Settlement Venue Battle Heats Up

Bayer is fighting on two legal fronts, but the most immediate threat to its stock is a brewing courtroom tug-of-war that could torpedo the €7.25 billion glyphosate settlement. A judicial panel in the US has conditionally ordered the landmark class-action accord to be transferred from a Missouri state court to a federal court in Northern California. If that move sticks, the case would land on the desk of Judge Vince Chhabria — the same magistrate who spurned an earlier settlement attempt back in 2020.

The stock shed 3.66% on Tuesday, touching a fresh 52-week low of €33.92. That leaves the shares roughly 31% below their peak of €49.17 and nursing a year-to-date decline of nearly 11%. Investors are clearly spooked by the prospect that Chhabria, who has already shown a willingness to break with Bayer, could reject or delay the current accord, putting Chief Executive Bill Anderson’s promise to materially reduce legal liabilities by the end of 2026 in jeopardy.

Analysts remain cautiously upbeat, arguing the selloff has overshot. Bank of America reiterated its buy recommendation with a €50 target, implying upside of roughly 50%. mwb Research is even more bullish, pegging fair value at €52. Market sentiment, however, suggests the legal fog will need to clear before any re-rating takes hold.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?

Bayer immediately signalled it will fight the transfer order. A company spokesman stressed that the case belongs in Missouri state court and expressed confidence a return to that venue can be secured. But the JPML’s conditional ruling — and the prospect of Chhabria presiding — adds a fresh layer of unpredictability to a process that already has a packed calendar.

Adding to the pressure, a new antitrust lawsuit landed from Iowa-based Latham Quality. The seed company accuses Bayer of illegally monopolising the NK603 corn trait after its patents expired in November 2022. Anderson dismissed any talk of a corporate breakup, insisting the focus remains on operational improvements and the roughly 100,000 remaining Roundup claims. He also warned that without a durable resolution of the glyphosate liability, Bayer could cease US production of the herbicide — a move that would leave America without a domestic manufacturer.

Two key dates are now on investors’ radar. The opt-out deadline for claimants to exit the settlement expires on 4 June, which will reveal how many litigants are willing to participate. A fairness hearing is scheduled for 9 July, where Chhabria would assess the adequacy of the deal if the transfer goes through. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is expected to rule in the Durnell case by late June or early July, offering a potential landmark clarification on pre-emption and product-liability questions that Bayer has long sought.

Even as the legal drama dominates, Bayer continues to push its pipeline forward. New data for the kidney drug Kerendia were presented at the ERA congress, but the reception from equity markets was muted. For now, the courtroom — and the shadow of Judge Chhabria — holds sway over the stock’s direction, and that is a narrative unlikely to resolve quickly.

Ad

Bayer Stock: New Analysis - 3 June

Fresh Bayer information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.

Read our updated Bayer analysis...

en | DE000BAY0017 | JUDGE | boerse | 69474764 |