LPKF Laser: Short Sellers Circle as 300% Rally Rests on Unproven Technology
Veröffentlicht: 15.05.2026 um 05:53 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Hedge funds are building bearish positions in LPKF Laser, betting that a near-300% year-to-date surge has run ahead of reality. The stock has been one of the hottest plays in the German tech space, lifted by excitement over its LIDE glass-substrate technology for advanced chip packaging. But short sellers are increasingly wagering on a reversal, positioning themselves for a fall that could be steep given the stock’s annualized volatility of over 140%.
At the centre of the rally is LIDE, a proprietary process that patterns glass substrates used in semiconductor packaging. The technology, which can handle complex aluminosilicate glasses, is seen as a key enabler for next-generation chips driven by artificial intelligence. The management estimates a roughly ten-year lead over competitors. Yet despite the hype, LIDE has not secured a single series production order. The current activity is limited to testing and development with several semiconductor customers, with the first production orders expected — or at least hoped for — in the second quarter of 2026. A meaningful ramp in volumes is not anticipated until 2027 at the earliest, and high-volume production likely won’t begin before 2029.
The financial reality of the business stands in stark contrast to the stock’s trajectory. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue slumped to €17.1 million from €25.3 million a year earlier, as the solar industry — still LPKF’s largest ongoing business — barely invested. Order intake offered a rare bright spot, rising to €24.1 million from €20.5 million, giving a book-to-bill ratio of 1.4. Still, management is guiding for full-year revenue of €105 million to €120 million and a negative adjusted EBIT margin. The bottom line remains deeply in the red.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying LPKF Laser?
After hitting a year-high of €28.00 last Monday, the stock has reversed course. It closed at €24.30 earlier this week and slipped further to €23.60 on Thursday, shedding nearly 10% over the past week. The €28 level now acts as short-term resistance, while traders note that the 50-day moving average near €12 represents the next significant support if the decline continues. Market reports confirm a notable increase in short selling activity as the stock has pulled back from its peak.
Analysts are wrestling with the valuation disconnect. Montega hiked its price target from €9.00 to €15.00, citing more concrete prospects in advanced semiconductor packaging. In an optimistic scenario, the bank sees a handful of customers contributing around €35 million in revenue in 2027, and from 2028 it considers group revenue of more than €200 million possible, with EBIT margins above 15%. Yet even at €15, the target sits well below the current share price, implying that the market has already priced in the upside before any of those orders materialise.
CEO Klaus Fiedler is scheduled to present the long-term strategy at an investor forum, where updates on the LIDE qualification process will be closely watched. The second quarter of 2026 is shaping up as the make-or-break period: if production orders do not arrive as promised, the speculative underpinning of the rally could quickly evaporate. Until then, the stock remains a battleground between those betting on a transformative technology and those betting on gravity.
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LPKF Laser Stock: New Analysis - 15 May
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