Lufthansa’s High-Stakes Gambit: ITA Expansion and Japan Pact Meet Persistent Headwinds
12.06.2026 - 17:05:13 | boerse-global.de
Lufthansa is doubling down on two strategic fronts at once — taking control of ITA Airways and deepening its reach into Japan — but the group’s share price rally last Friday masks the heavy costs still weighing on the business. The stock climbed just over 4% to €8.61, pushed higher by news of the ITA stake expansion and a new joint-venture partner in All Nippon Airways. Yet the airline remains caught between ambitious expansion and a punishing geopolitical environment that has already drained hundreds of millions from its bottom line.
The ITA acquisition is accelerating faster than originally laid out. Lufthansa’s supervisory board has approved exercising the option to lift its stake in the Italian carrier from 41% to 90%, paying €325 million for the additional 49%. That option was embedded in the initial purchase agreement with the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance, signed in June 2023. The transaction still requires clearance from the European Commission and the US Department of Justice, with approval expected in the first quarter of 2027. A final tranche to take full ownership could be exercised from 2028. Operationally, ITA already behaves like a Lufthansa subsidiary: it has joined Star Alliance, adopted Miles & More as its loyalty programme, and Lufthansa Cargo now markets the Italian carrier’s freighter capacity, including three Boeing 777 freighters.
Alongside the ownership push, Lufthansa signed an agreement with All Nippon Airways at the IATA annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro on 7 June. ITA Airways will join the existing Europe-Japan joint venture that has coordinated around 160 long-haul flights per week between the two regions since 2012. The addition of the Rome-Fiumicino to Tokyo-Haneda route turns the Italian hub into a southern gateway for Japan traffic, particularly valuable for passengers from southern Europe, the Mediterranean and North Africa. Japanese antitrust authorities have already waved the deal through.
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But the feel-good headlines from Rio and the Milanese hangars sit alongside a more sobering operational reality. The tentative Iran ceasefire that began in April has not yet fully restored the airspace closures that forced Lufthansa to cancel thousands of flights and burn extra fuel on lengthy detours. The first-quarter bill was steep: €1.7 billion in additional costs from volatile fuel prices and cancelled routes. Revenue still managed to rise 8% year-on-year, but CFO Till Streichert has cautioned that full-year profit will undershoot earlier targets. Analysts have taken note. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to “Underweight” in May, and Barclays shifted to “Sell”. The average price target across the analyst community sits at around €9.16 — barely 6% above Friday’s close.
The shares are now trading above both their 50-day moving average of €7.93 and the 200-day average of €8.07, offering a modest technical comfort. Over the past twelve months the stock has gained roughly 22%, though it still sits about 10% below its 52-week high of €9.59. The summer travel season could provide a short-term tailwind, and a swift regulatory green light for the ITA deal would remove one layer of uncertainty. Yet the core risks — oil price exposure and the unpredictable geopolitics of the Middle East — remain hardwired into the investment case. Lufthansa’s dual push into Italy and Japan may strengthen its network, but the payoff depends on conditions the airline cannot control.
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