Meta Charts Cloud Course With $10 Billion Anthropic Pact as $145 Billion AI Spend Stirs Doubt
Published on 07/18/2026 at 06:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Meta Platforms is quietly repositioning itself from a social media juggernaut into a cloud computing contender, and a potential $10 billion lease deal with AI startup Anthropic marks its most concrete step yet. The two-year contract, first reported by the New York Times, would see Meta provide Anthropic with computing capacity in exchange for monthly payments, with exit clauses available to both sides. The proposal came from Anthropic in June, and Meta is now weighing the offer. A spokesman declined to comment. If signed, the deal would pit Meta directly against specialized cloud providers such as CoreWeave and Nebius, both of which already have multibillion-dollar agreements with Meta — $21 billion and $27 billion respectively. Anthropic itself has a separate $45 billion compute contract with SpaceX, underscoring the scale of demand in the AI infrastructure arms race.
The cloud push has been months in the making. In May, Mark Zuckerberg signaled that Meta planned to enter the cloud-computing business after fielding weekly inquiries from companies eager to buy excess capacity at a premium. To lead the effort, Meta hired Dave Brown, a 19-year veteran of Amazon Web Services, to head the “Meta Compute” initiative. The company is simultaneously scaling its own data-center footprint: a facility in Louisiana is being expanded from 2 gigawatts to 5 gigawatts at a cost exceeding $50 billion, while a separate $9 billion site is under construction in Alberta, Canada. Yet the scale of capital deployment is breathtaking. Meta now expects capital expenditure of $125 billion to $145 billion in 2026, more than double the $72 billion spent last year. In the first quarter alone, capex rose 46.8% to nearly $19 billion.
Investors have reacted with a mixture of skepticism and anxiety. The Meta stock closed Friday at €565.10, down 2.67% on the day, and has fallen about 16% from its 52-week high of €677.80 set in late July. The initial reaction to the Anthropic news was sharper — shares tumbled as much as 6% before paring losses as the strategic rationale sank in. Over the past week, the stock is off 3.38%, dragged down by a broader rout in technology and semiconductor names. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost roughly 11% in seven days, entering bear-market territory, as the launch of the Chinese AI model Kimi K3 by Moonshot AI stoked fears of excessive spending on AI infrastructure with uncertain payoffs. Netflix’s weak outlook added to the gloom.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Meta?
Analysts are divided on the wisdom of Meta’s capital-intensity strategy. BMO Capital’s Brian Pitz, who rates the stock “Market Perform” with a $720 price target, argues that Meta has the lowest visibility into AI-related returns among large-cap tech groups. He notes the company’s free cash flow stood at $49.4 billion over the trailing 12 months, and that figure could nearly double if spending were curtailed. Others are more optimistic: Barclays sets a target of $830, Bernstein $850, Stifel $780, and Citizens JMP $800, while Raymond James recently upgraded Meta to “Outperform.” The consensus remains a “Moderate Buy” to “Strong Buy,” with average price targets between $815 and $830. The fundamental business supports the bulls: first-quarter revenue rose 33.1% to $56.31 billion, the operating margin hit 41%, and earnings per share of $10.44 crushed the consensus estimate of $6.67. It was the fifth consecutive quarterly earnings beat.
Still, the mood is clouded by legal and regulatory risks. On July 20, a trial begins in Nashville in which the state of Tennessee — one of 42 states suing Meta — accuses the company of designing Instagram as an “addiction machine” for teenagers. Meta denies the allegations. Previous cases in California and New Mexico were settled for $6 million and $375 million respectively. Parent groups are pushing the U.S. Senate to subpoena Zuckerberg and Google CEO Sundar Pichai after the White House intervened to shield senior executives from testimony. In Canada, Meta has expanded lobbying against planned privacy and platform laws, and in the second quarter it donated roughly $200,000 to associations of state attorneys general who simultaneously investigate tech companies.
Inside the company, the C-suite is voting with its feet. CFO Susan Li sold approximately 148,800 shares worth about $95 million in recent months, a transaction that falls within routine compensation plans but draws scrutiny given the capital intensity of the AI push. Technically, the stock remains above its 50-day moving average of €523.38, suggesting the medium-term recovery from the March low of €452.10 is still intact. All eyes will turn to Meta’s next quarterly report on July 29, when the company reports alongside Microsoft and Qualcomm. For investors, the key question is whether Meta can convert its colossal infrastructure bet into a genuine new revenue stream — or whether the cloud pivot becomes another cost center that tests even Zuckerberg’s legendary patience.
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