Metaplanet's Bitcoin Lottery: A Desperate Gamble as Stock Plunges 88%
20.06.2026 - 06:34:43 | boerse-global.de
Metaplanet is reaching into the bag of tricks to keep retail investors from fleeing its battered stock. The Tokyo-based company, which styles itself as Asia's largest listed bitcoin holder, has launched a lottery-style bonus program in partnership with the Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck. From mid-July to mid-August, shareholders who hold at least 100 Metaplanet shares on June 30, 2026, can enter a drawing for bitcoin worth a total of ¥20 million. More than a thousand winners will be drawn, with top prizes valued at ¥100,000 in crypto. The move is a transparent attempt to pump enthusiasm into a stock that has lost 88% of its value over the past twelve months.
The disconnect between the company's grandiose bitcoin strategy and the market's verdict is stark. Metaplanet's balance sheet holds 40,177 bitcoin, making it the third-largest publicly traded bitcoin hoarder globally and the largest in Asia. But the average purchase price of those coins sits at roughly $89,300, while the cryptocurrency currently trades near $63,400. That leaves the crypto reserve valued at around $2.55 billion, saddling the company with a massive unrealized loss that drags on investor sentiment.
The stock's collapse tells the story. On Friday, shares briefly jumped 2% to €1.30 after the lottery announcement, before settling to close at €1.28 — still a marginal gain but far from a reversal. The broader picture is brutal: the stock has fallen 42% since the start of the year, and the 12-month slide of 88% erased almost the entire rally from earlier cycles. Volatility is running above 60%, reflecting the extreme sensitivity of the equity to every bitcoin price twitch.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?
Management has tried other moves to stem the bleeding. In mid-June, Metaplanet unveiled a new shareholder benefits program, and the company is pushing ahead with the takeover of Siiibo Securities, a regulated brokerage. Neither has generated lasting buying interest. The $1.20 level has become the last line of defense — the stock already scraped near that year low of €1.20 before bouncing. On the upside, the 50-day moving average at €1.60 blocks any rapid recovery.
Technical indicators add to the caution. The relative strength index (RSI) stands at around 36–38, approaching but not yet in oversold territory. The stock trades nearly 47% below its 200-day moving average, a sign of deep bear-market momentum. Without new catalysts — such as further bitcoin purchases or a crypto rally — the lottery-induced bounce may prove short-lived.
The June 30, 2026, deadline for the lottery registration is already acting as a near-term magnet, pulling in yield-hungry holders. But once the incentive expires, the stock could face a fresh test of the €1.20 support level. If that floor breaks, the next leg down could be sharp. For now, Metaplanet's management is betting that a bitcoin giveaway can buy time — but the market is not yet buying the story.
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