Metaplanet's Radical Rescue: Free Bitcoin, a Stablecoin Giveaway, and a Brokerage Buy to Halt an 88% Rout
28.06.2026 - 16:02:00 | boerse-global.de
There is a jarring disconnect at Metaplanet. The Japanese company holds 40,177 Bitcoin on its balance sheet — making it the third-largest corporate hoarder of the cryptocurrency worldwide — yet its stock closed Friday at just €1.09. Over the past twelve months that represents an 88% collapse, and the 52-week low of €1.06 is practically breathing down its neck. Investors are no longer impressed by a crypto treasure; they want to see a working business model.
To stem the exodus, management is deploying a two-pronged strategy. The near-term fix comes in the form of shareholder loyalty lotteries that literally give away Bitcoin and stablecoins. Anyholder who owned at least 100 shares by June 26 — the eligibility cut-off for the latest round — is in the draw. Under the CoinCheck programme, 50 winners will each receive Bitcoin worth ¥100,000, while another 1,500 will each get ¥10,000 in Bitcoin, for a total distribution of ¥20 million. A separate lottery run with HashPort and JPYC targets the first 1,000 qualifying shareholders, handing out ¥100,000, ¥10,000 and ¥1,000 in JPYC stablecoins, with a combined pool of over ¥1.5 million.
Those giveaways are a stopgap. The longer-term gambit is far more ambitious. Metaplanet is acquiring all outstanding shares of Siiibo Securities for ¥2.1 billion, a deal dubbed "Project Nova." After the takeover, Siiibo will be rebranded as Metaplanet Securities, giving the group a regulated financial instruments licence. The plan is to develop and distribute Bitcoin?linked products — among them BTC?denominated bonds — and pivot away from being a passive vault. Recurring fee income from a capital?markets platform is the ultimate prize.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Metaplanet?
But the financing structure that built the Bitcoin stash is now a source of acute worry. Metaplanet recently slashed the base price of its 27th series of share subscription rights from ÂĄ298 to ÂĄ187. A critical safeguard remains: the rights can only be exercised if the ratio of the exercise price to net asset value per share is at least 1.01. This "mNAV condition" is meant to protect the Bitcoin?per?share metric that underpins the entire investment thesis. Analysts see it as a make?or?break threshold; if new share issuance dilutes the Bitcoin holding per equity, the model loses its rationale.
The technical picture reinforces the sense of crisis. The Relative Strength Index at 27.7 signals deeply oversold territory, while the stock trades far below both the 50?day moving average of €1.54 and the 200?day average of €2.34. Annualised volatility of 63% means any bounce could be violent — and so could the next sell?off. Over the last 30 days alone, the shares have shed 30%; year?to?date the loss is 51%.
Macroeconomic crosswinds add another layer of uncertainty. Japan releases industrial production, unemployment and the Tankan survey this week, and the US calendar features the ADP employment report and June non?farm payrolls. For a Tokyo?listed stock with a crypto heart, yen sentiment and global risk appetite are direct drivers.
The next few weeks will define Metaplanet’s direction. Hovering at the 52?week floor, the stock needs to reclaim the 50?day moving average just to stabilise the technical outlook. More fundamentally, the market is no longer betting on how much Bitcoin the company holds; it is scrutinising whether Project Nova can convert that hoard into actual revenue. If the securities arm fails to generate meaningful fees, the equity remains a highly leveraged, volatile proxy on Bitcoin — and all the lottery tickets in the world won’t change that.
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