Micron’s HBM Lines Are Full Through 2028 — So Why Is the Stock Still Falling?
Published on 07/27/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Micron shares closed last week with a 6.96 percent decline, landing at 809.20 euros, and the selling has only accelerated. By Monday, the stock had slipped another 5.65 percent to 763.50 euros, pushing the drawdown from its June 25 record high to 30.83 percent. The contradiction is glaring: a company that has sold out its most critical product for years ahead is watching its market value erode by nearly a third.
The sell-off is not a reaction to any single piece of bad news. It is the continuation of a multi-week correction that has repeatedly tested technical support levels below the $900 mark. The relative strength index sits at 43.5, placing the stock in neutral territory — neither oversold nor overbought. With annualized 30-day volatility above 100 percent, the market is clearly struggling to price in what comes next.
The $246 Billion Question
The bull case rests on a single, powerful narrative: Micron is no longer a commodity memory supplier. It has transformed into a long-term partner for AI infrastructure, with 16 multi-year customer agreements that now represent roughly $22 billion in upfront commitments. Every bit of available HBM capacity is spoken for through 2026, and orders are already flowing in for 2027 and 2028. Management’s goal is to lock in at least half of total company revenue under these multi-year contracts before the current agreements expire.
Bank of America recently raised its price target on Micron to $1,550, maintaining a buy rating. Analyst Vivek Arya points to the explosive growth trajectory of the HBM market, which he expects to expand from roughly $35 billion this year to $246 billion by 2030 — a sevenfold increase. That milestone is now projected to arrive two years earlier than previously forecast. Investor Summit Research also rates the stock a buy with a $1,219 target, citing expected annual revenue growth of 50 percent and earnings growth of 76 percent through fiscal 2030.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Micron?
The Wall Street consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 29 analysts recommend buying, only one says hold, and the average price target stands at $1,569.29. The current share price implies upside of roughly 73.6 percent from Monday’s close.
Earnings That Keep Beating
The optimism is grounded in a string of strong results. For the third fiscal quarter, Micron reported revenue of $41.46 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $25.11 — well above the analyst consensus of $20.28. It was the eighth consecutive quarter of earnings beats. For the current fourth quarter, management has guided for revenue around $50 billion, EPS of roughly $31, and a gross margin of approximately 86 percent.
UBS describes the fundamentals as solid and views the recent price weakness as temporary. The average analyst price target of $1,325.12 euros supports that view.
The Bear Case: Competition and Circular Demand
The risks are equally clear. SK Hynix and Samsung are both ramping up their own next-generation HBM capacity, and both have recently signed multi-billion-dollar supply agreements with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom. In the global DRAM market, Samsung holds a 38 percent share, SK Hynix 29 percent, and Micron 22 percent. The competitive pressure is intensifying, not easing.
Micron’s own history works against it. The memory maker has always been vulnerable to brutal cyclical swings, and skeptics question whether the current AI-driven boom has truly broken that pattern — or merely delayed the next downturn. A more specific concern centers on the financing structure behind AI investments. A significant portion of current and future demand, some analysts argue, is not coming from end users but is instead being funded off-balance-sheet in a circular arrangement where future revenues largely finance each other. If that thesis gains traction, it could compress the valuation the market assigns to Micron’s order book, regardless of how full the HBM lines actually are.
There is also a company-specific headwind: Apple is reportedly seeking US regulatory approval to use Chinese memory chips. As one of the few major American manufacturers, Micron could lose market share with a key customer if that diversification effort succeeds.
A Market That Can’t Stop Selling
The broader environment has not helped. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell roughly 17 percent in July after several hyperscalers dramatically increased their AI investment plans, raising doubts about the long-term profitability of those expenditures. Micron was caught in that wave of selling.
Micron at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The stock now trades 4.02 percent below its 50-day moving average, a sign that the short-term trend has turned negative. The 100-day moving average sits at 633.12 euros, and a failure to stabilize near that level would strengthen the bearish case. Below that, the 200-day average of 444.59 euros — still 71.73 percent below the current price — marks the outer boundary of the current correction.
The Next Test
Micron is investing $24 billion over ten years in a new wafer fab in Singapore, a double-deck facility with roughly 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space that is expected to begin production in the second half of 2028. A dedicated HBM packaging plant at the same site should start contributing by 2027. Management has emphasized that it will manage capacity flexibly to avoid flooding the market.
The next concrete catalyst comes with the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report. That release will test the durability of management’s guidance on HBM4 deliveries and gross margins — and whether Micron is ready to speak plainly about capacity allocation for 2027. For now, the stock sits in a tug-of-war between a fully booked product line and a market that has lost patience with the waiting.
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