Microsoft Faces Twin Headwinds: UK Antitrust Probe and $2.67GW Texas Power Pact as Stock Sinks 19%
Published on 06/24/2026 at 17:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The software giant is fighting battles on two fronts. In London, the Competition and Markets Authority is digging into whether Microsoft’s grip on productivity software, operating systems and security tools amounts to an anti-competitive ecosystem. In Texas, the company has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Chevron to build a massive gas-fired plant, Kilby, that will churn out 2.67 gigawatts for a new data center campus in Pecos. Both developments are weighing on a stock that has already lost nearly a fifth of its value this year.
Microsoft shares currently trade at €327.35, roughly 19% below where they started 2025. The gap from the 52-week high is even wider at more than 30%, and the share price languishes well under the 200-day moving average of €385.15. Investors are recalibrating as two fresh variables enter the equation: regulatory risk from the CMA and the enormous capital outlay required to secure energy for artificial intelligence workloads.
The CMA investigation, which kicked off with the release of initial submissions on Tuesday, centers on whether Microsoft should be designated as a strategically dominant player in digital markets. The company pushes back hard, arguing that the regulator is lumping five completely separate business lines — productivity software, operating systems, security solutions and others — into a single bucket. Microsoft insists there is no closed ecosystem, pointing to fierce rivals such as Google, Oracle and CrowdStrike that intensify competition, particularly in the AI sphere.
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Regulators are specifically concerned about software bundling and default settings that could lock out competitors. They are examining how easily alternative AI solutions can plug into Microsoft 365 and Teams, alongside a parallel review of cloud licensing terms. Microsoft contends that all its products use open application programming interfaces and that external programs can be integrated without friction. The evidence-gathering phase runs until September, with a draft decision expected in October. The final report will not land until February 2027, meaning the antitrust cloud could hover over the stock for many months.
Meanwhile, the energy pact with Chevron addresses a different bottleneck. Microsoft’s AI ambitions consume staggering amounts of electricity, and the Kilby project — developed by a Chevron subsidiary alongside Engine No. 1 — will be built in stages using turbines from GE Vernova and the Caterpillar unit Solar Turbines. The on-site generation relieves pressure on the regional grid and directly powers the Pecos campus, which will massively expand compute capacity. Chevron expects to make a final investment decision by the end of 2026, and first power is slated for 2028. The construction phase alone is expected to create over 6,000 jobs, with hundreds of permanent positions to follow.
For all its scale, the deal has not sparked any enthusiasm on Wall Street. Investors are weighing the multi-billion-dollar infrastructure bill against the long-term payoff, especially since Microsoft has publicly committed to ambitious climate goals. A fossil-fuel plant seems at odds with that pledge, though Chevron points to strict emissions controls and modern environmental standards. The market wants to see concrete evidence that these massive outlays will eventually translate into higher margins and revenue growth.
Until the first electrons flow from the Kilby plant and the CMA’s final report is published, Microsoft’s stock remains caught between two demanding forces: regulatory uncertainty in Europe and the hefty cost of building out the AI supply chain. Both will test the patience of shareholders throughout 2025 and beyond.
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