Moncler gets cautious Morgan Stanley update, shares trade below sector peers

By Anna Wagner, Analysts & Consensus desk. Reviewed prior to publication on 2026-06-23, 20:56.

Moncler (IT0005252207) sits firmly in the European luxury segment on Borsa Italiana in Milan. Morgan Stanley has cut its price target to 57 euros from 59 euros and maintained an Equal-weight rating, citing slower US growth and tourism risks in Europe.

Morgan Stanley stays cautious

According to a detailed Morgan Stanley research note summarized by Investing.com, the new 57 euro target is based on a blend of discounted cash flow and multiples, implying limited near-term upside at current levels. The bank now models its earnings forecasts around 2 percent below the broader analyst consensus for 2026 and 2027.

Morgan Stanley’s discounted cash flow approach implies a Moncler share value of roughly 55 euros, using a weighted average cost of capital of 8.8 percent and a terminal growth rate of 2.5 percent. On a multiples basis, the bank sees around 60 euros as fair value, referencing Moncler’s historical next-12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7 times and a peer average of 24.2 times including LVMH, Kering, Richemont, Prada and Burberry.

Consensus picture and Q2 expectations

In its note Morgan Stanley points out that its stance is more cautious than many other houses, with its 2026 earnings-per-share estimate at 2.34 euros versus a consensus closer to 2.40 euros. The bank expects group revenue to reach 3.25 billion euros in 2026, rising to 3.46 billion euros in 2027 and 3.66 billion euros in 2028.

For the core Moncler brand, the US is flagged as an area of slower momentum, while European tourism trends pose a risk to spending patterns in key cities, according to the same analysis. At the same time, the broker models second-quarter 2026 retail sales growth for the Moncler brand of around 5 percent at constant exchange rates, made up of approximately 3 percent from additional retail space and 2 percent like-for-like growth.

How Moncler earns its money

Moncler generates most of its revenue with high-end outerwear and ready-to-wear collections under the Moncler and Stone Island brands, sold via a mix of directly operated stores, concessions and online channels worldwide. The group has expanded beyond its alpine down jackets into knitwear, footwear and accessories to broaden its customer base and reduce seasonality.

Where the shares trade today

Moncler shares (IT0005252207) most recently changed hands on Borsa Italiana in Milan at around 50.90 euros, according to real-time data from Investing.com on the MONC ticker on June 23, 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.