Nasdaq 100 Seeks Footing After Retail Data Disappoints

A disappointing U.S. retail sales report sparked a wave of selling on Tuesday, leaving the Nasdaq 100 to search for stability. The tech-heavy index closed the session down 0.40% at 25,268.14 points. While prices found a tentative floor just above the 25,100 level during the day's trade, a modest pre-market bounce was signaled on Wednesday morning. At 7:30 AM ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were trading 0.18% higher at 25,315 points.

The index is now consolidating in a precarious position just above a major support area, setting the stage for a pivotal technical battle this week.

• Current Status: The index closed at 25,268.14 on February 10th.
• Critical Support: The Tuesday low of 25,110 marks the immediate line of defense. A breach below this level could see a test of the psychologically significant 25,000 threshold, with a potential correction extending toward 24,880.
• Key Resistance: For any sustained recovery, bulls must first reclaim the 25,415 level, followed by a steeper trendline resistance near 25,550.
• Momentum Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 48.25, suggesting room for movement in either direction. The index is currently testing its 50-day moving average, a key zone that will likely determine the near-term trend.

Weak Consumer Spending Weighs on Sentiment

Tuesday's trading was dominated by a clear "risk-off" mood. The catalyst was data showing U.S. retail sales were flat in December, missing analyst expectations for a 0.4% increase. This stagnation signals that high interest rates may finally be curbing consumer appetite, a concern that hit consumer discretionary and retail stocks particularly hard.

The index opened under pressure, dipping to an intraday low of 25,113.43 before a slight recovery. Trading volume exceeded the 20-day average, indicating conviction among sellers. Semiconductor and software stocks were among the hardest hit, as ongoing uncertainty about the monetization of AI investments prompted a rotation out of high-valuation growth names into more defensive positions.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying NASDAQ 100?

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a key fear gauge, rose 3.9%, reflecting increased market nervousness.

Mixed Moves Among Major Constituents

The performance of individual stocks highlighted the fractured market sentiment:

• Microchip Technology (MCHP) was in focus after announcing an upsized $800 million convertible note offering. Its shares stabilized in pre-market trading Wednesday, up 0.13% to $74.51, as initial concerns over dilution were absorbed.
• Tesla (TSLA) and Axon Enterprise (AXON) defied the broader downtrend. Tesla attracted speculative buying interest even as the rest of the tech sector struggled.
• In contrast, most retail and consumer-facing names saw declines. The weak sales data forced investors to reassess profit expectations for the first quarter of 2026.
• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) was a notable exception, with its shares supported by sustained robust demand for chip-design software.

Outlook: Tentative Bounce or Bear Trap?

The critical question for traders is whether buyers can successfully defend the 25,110 support zone. The pre-market futures gain of 0.18% points to an initial attempt at recovery, but conviction appears thin.

All eyes remain on bond yields. The weak retail data pushed Treasury yields slightly lower, which could provide a tailwind for technology stocks if the yield on the 10-year U.S. note remains subdued. However, any unexpectedly hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials today could quickly erase early gains. The battle for the 50-day moving average is set to define the trading week.