Nebius Races to New Highs on Nvidia Backing and Hyperscaler Contracts, Yet Insider Selling Raises Red Flags

Nebius Group is riding a wave of euphoria that has pushed its shares within striking distance of an all-time high, but a closer look reveals a story as much about internal skepticism as it is about explosive growth. Over the past three months, company insiders have sold stock worth $123.5 million — including chief executive Arkadiy Volozh and director Elena Bunina — even as the AI cloud provider’s market value has nearly doubled.

The disconnect is sharp. On June 2, Nebius closed at around $271, just shy of the $274.80 intraday record set a day earlier. The rally was ignited by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who during his COMPUTEX keynote in Taiwan singled out Nebius as a “world-class” AI cloud provider, alongside Oracle and CoreWeave. Shares surged 14.5 percent on June 1 to $264.51, with trading volume hitting 24.25 million shares — well above the daily average of 18.39 million. Huang specifically named Nebius customers Cursor, World Labs, Revolut and Shopify.

The Nvidia endorsement rests on real financial momentum. In the first quarter of 2026, Nebius reported revenue of $399 million, a 684 percent year-over-year leap. Its core AI cloud business grew 841 percent to $389.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $129.5 million, while net income from continuing operations reached $621 million, compared with a $104 million loss a year earlier. Management now targets an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026, up from $1.25 billion at the close of 2025.

Much of that trajectory is underpinned by two massive customer commitments: a $27 billion contract with Meta and a $19.4 billion agreement with Microsoft. Together worth over $46 billion, the multi-year deals secure dedicated AI data center capacity and have expanded Nebius’ cloud pipeline 3.5 times in the first quarter alone — excluding the hyperscaler contributions. Capacity from these anchor contracts is expected to come online in the second half of the year.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?

Yet the same growth story that has excited bulls is also fueling caution. Nebius plans to invest between $20 billion and $25 billion this year, leaving a funding gap of roughly $4 billion to $5 billion that may require a capital raise — a risk that hangs over the current share price. Total liabilities stand at around $8 billion, and BNP Paribas, which initiated coverage with a neutral rating and a $255 price target, warns that much of the growth is already priced in. The bank does not expect a positive adjusted operating result until the first quarter of 2027. Short sellers have taken note: 17 percent of the float is sold short.

That skepticism is amplified by insider behavior. Volozh sold 33,358 shares in April at an average of $103.73, reducing his stake by 3.7 percent. Bunina unloaded 10,894 shares in May at $206.87 — more than half her holding. Such moves raise questions as Nebius prepares for a high-stakes week of investor outreach. On June 3, co-founder and chief business officer Roman Chernin is scheduled to appear at the BofA Securities Global Technology Conference in New York, where the insider selling is likely to be a topic of discussion. Meanwhile, Nebius is also showcasing its ambitions in physical AI at the IEEE ICRA robotics conference in Vienna from June 1–5, part of a broader “RoboTour” that runs through July.

The company is positioning itself as a natural home for robotics workloads. On June 1, it launched the Physical AI Workbench, a platform that integrates simulation, synthetic data generation and deployment workflows. Nvidia has already designated Nebius an early adopter of its upcoming Vera Rubin architecture, and the two companies are embedding Nvidia’s physical AI tools into Nebius’ cloud services. The goal is to attract startups building autonomous systems to a stack that combines Nvidia’s technology with Nebius’ dedicated infrastructure.

Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Analyst opinions remain split. Citigroup’s Tyler Radke sees limited liquidity risk, noting that roughly 90 percent of planned investments are already backed by cash and contractual commitments. Citi raised its price target to $287, the highest on Wall Street, with a buy rating. Citizens analyst Greg Miller followed with a $270 target, calling Nebius a “hyper-growth” story leveraged to its own technology stack, power supply and data center capacity. BNP Paribas, however, counters that the current price leaves little room for error. Nebius’ own target of reaching 5 gigawatts of data center capacity by 2030 — including a 310-megawatt complex in Lappeenranta, Finland, due for completion in 2027 — will require sustained execution and capital markets confidence. Next week’s conferences in Vienna and New York will be an early test of whether Nebius can convince investors that its growth is sustainable enough to justify both the valuation and the insider exits.

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