Nebius’s $46 Billion AI Cloud Backlog Can’t Shield the Stock From a Post-Inclusion Hangover
28.06.2026 - 11:11:42 | boerse-global.de
The stock of Nebius has become a study in extremes. At 97.5 percent annualized volatility over 30 days, the market is effectively admitting it does not know how to price a company that is simultaneously drowning in demand and burning through capital at breakneck speed. After hitting an all-time high of €261.00 on June 22, the shares fell nearly 19 percent and closed the week at €211.60, capping five consecutive losing sessions that erased much of the rally around the Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
The headline number that has drawn every investor’s attention is the $46 billion backlog of multi-year cloud computing contracts. That figure includes a $27 billion capacity deal with Meta, a $17 billion revenue agreement with Microsoft, and a $2 billion investment commitment from Nvidia stretching to the end of the decade. The company’s entire power capacity for the first quarter was sold out, and management reports that roughly four customers are bidding for each new graphics processor. This is not a demand problem—it is a supply problem.
Nebius is attacking that supply constraint with a capital spending plan that has been raised from $16?20 billion to $20?25 billion for this year. A new AI factory in Pennsylvania is among the projects, and the company targets over four gigawatts of contracted capacity. The flip side is that debt is approaching $8 billion, even though the balance sheet holds more than $9 billion in cash, supported by convertible bonds and Nvidia’s stake.
On the operational front, the first quarter of 2026 showed what happens when a hyperscaler?grade cloud provider catches the AI wave. Revenue hit $399 million, up 684 percent from a year ago, and the company posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.11 against analyst expectations of a $0.78 loss. The core AI cloud business grew 841 percent to $389.7 million. Yet CFO Dado Alonso has warned that the second quarter will see a temporary margin squeeze because most of the new capacity will not go online until the third and fourth quarters.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
That timing risk is compounded by a stock that has already priced in a great deal of success. The trailing price?to?earnings ratio of roughly 76 leaves little room for execution stumbles. Wall Street remains broadly bullish—Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citizens JMP have all raised price targets, with the consensus near $280—but the concentration of revenue among a handful of hyperscaler customers is a recurring concern.
The insider selling data adds another layer of caution. Over the past six months, Nebius has recorded 32 insider transactions, every single one a sale, totaling approximately $14.7 million. Director Johanna Boynton sold about 6,000 shares in mid?June at an average of $253. CEO Arkady Volozh also trimmed his stake, and the largest seller was the Chief Infrastructure Officer. That many insiders choosing to exit near the peak of a historic rally is a signal that fundamental?minded investors cannot ignore.
The market mechanics of the Nasdaq?100 inclusion on June 22 provided a temporary tailwind. More than 200 index?linked products with over $600 billion in assets under management had to mechanically buy the stock. Once that forced buying subsided, the shares reversed sharply. The week ended with a single?day loss of 6.18 percent on Friday. Despite the pullback, the stock remains up roughly 177 percent year?to?date and 372 percent over the past twelve months.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Nebius will release its second?quarter results on July 29. Analysts are forecasting revenue of around $585 million. Given the company’s own warning about a soft quarter, the bar for a positive surprise is low, but the bar for a disappointing miss is equally low. The real stress test comes in the third quarter, when Nebius must transform its newly built capacity into recurring revenue. Until then, the market’s 97.5 percent volatility reading is likely to remain the most honest assessment of where the stock stands.
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