Nebius Stock: A 26% Plunge Exposes the 'Meta Compute' Threat to Its Biggest Customer
Published on 07/06/2026 at 07:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock market has a short memory for past glory. Just weeks after touching an all-time high of €261, shares in Nebius closed Friday at €194 — a 25.67% retreat that wiped out nearly a quarter of the company’s value. The catalyst? A report early July that Meta Platforms, the single largest customer for the cloud infrastructure provider, is building its own rival service called "Meta Compute."
The sell-off accelerated fast. In the last five trading sessions alone, the stock dropped 15.21%, leaving long-term holders nursing a nasty hangover after a breathtaking rally. From the start of the year, Nebius shares had soared 153.59%, and over twelve months the gain still stands at an eye-popping 373.17%. But the chart now shows a jagged peak, and the mood has turned defensive.
Meta’s plan is a direct assault on the business model of specialized AI-infrastructure companies. Under the "Meta Compute" banner, the tech giant intends to lease its surplus GPU capacity to third-party developers. That shifts Meta from being Nebius’s key partner — the two have a long-standing AI collaboration valued at up to $27 billion — into a direct competitor for the same pool of cloud customers. Market watchers estimate that Nebius could lose as much as $62 billion in potential future volume if Meta scales back its external contracts.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
The operational numbers, however, remain stunning. Nebius generated first-quarter revenue that exploded 684% year over year. Management has guided for sales above $3 billion this year and expects that figure to double by the time 2026 rolls around. The total order backlog sits at a colossal $46 billion, with names like Microsoft and Meta still filling the books. Yet the valuation leaves no room for error: at a market capitalization of nearly €48 billion, the stock trades at an extreme multiple that magnifies every piece of bad news.
Nvidia throws a long shadow over the story as well. The chip giant invested $2 billion in Nebius during the spring, cementing a strategic alliance to build out vast computing capacity through the end of the decade. That partnership provides a buffer against Meta’s move, since Nebius remains a favored conduit for Nvidia’s hardware. But it does not eliminate the core risk: hyperscalers like Meta are becoming landlords of their own GPU fleets.
Some analysts argue that Meta’s pivot actually confirms the red-hot demand for AI compute power. Nebius could still benefit as a supplier to a rapidly expanding ecosystem where total infrastructure spending may exceed 3% of U.S. GDP by 2027. Nonetheless, the margin dynamics are shifting. When giants flood the market with their own capacity, specialist providers face permanent pricing pressure. The short-term sentiment swing is palpable, and short-sellers have been circling.
From a technical perspective, the next level to watch is the 50-day moving average at exactly €190.42. A decisive break below that support would likely trigger further selling. The Nebius story is far from broken — the growth trajectory and backlog remain intact — but the market has just been handed a stark reminder of how quickly a customer can turn into a rival in the hyperscaler age.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 6 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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