Nebius: The $33.6 Billion Backlog That Rests on a Power Play
Veröffentlicht: 29.06.2026 um 21:35 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
The AI infrastructure arms race has a new currency, and it isn't Nvidia chips — it's megawatts. Nebius has emerged as one of the most aggressive builders in the space, racing to erect data centers at a pace few peers can match. The company's backlog of $33.6 billion in outstanding performance obligations as of March 31, 2026, is as much a vote of confidence as it is a ticking clock. Nearly 29% of that backlog is expected to convert into revenue within 24 months — but only if the physical infrastructure materializes on schedule.
The stock reflects that binary tension. It recently traded at around 226 euros, roughly 13% below its 52-week high of 261 euros, after having nearly tripled since the start of the year. A separate reading of 224.35 euros came after a 6% bounce on a single session, underscoring the volatility baked into the name. The annualized 30-day volatility sits at nearly 99%, and the stock is trading about 99% above its 200-day moving average. There is little valuation cushion for execution missteps.
The power advantage
Nebius has already secured 3.5 gigawatts of power capacity under contract — surpassing its original full-year target of 3 GW — and now aims for at least 4 GW by year-end. Crucially, more than 75% of those commitments are tied to owned capacity, reducing reliance on third-party data center leases. That ownership structure is a margin differentiator: leasing hits a ceiling, owning does not.
The company's partnership with Bloom Energy is a key piece of this puzzle. A long-term agreement for solid-oxide fuel cells at Nebius facilities comes with a potential service volume of up to $2.6 billion. By bringing its own power generation, Nebius sidesteps utility grid connection delays — a bottleneck that has slowed many rivals. This opens up a wider range of locations and accelerates the buildout timeline.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Construction is already underway on the first gigawatt-scale campus in Independence, Missouri. In Pennsylvania, Nebius has secured land and grid access for up to 1.2 GW of additional capacity. The company expects to begin aggressively ramping capacity in the third quarter of 2026, converting pre-sold contracts into recurring revenue.
The Meta anchor and the Nvidia stamp
The most visible validation of Nebius's model came in the form of a five-year, $27 billion contract with Meta Platforms. Of that amount, $12 billion is firmly committed, while the remaining $15 billion is structured as an option. Nebius can either deliver that capacity to Meta or sell it to other customers at potentially higher prices. This "sign the customer, then build" approach is borrowed from industrial infrastructure and provides a measure of downside protection.
Nvidia, meanwhile, has deepened its ties with Nebius by investing $2 billion in the company and awarding it "Exemplar Cloud" status for multiple chip generations. That certification is a hard procurement criterion for enterprise clients — not just marketing fluff. It also positions Nebius as a critical distribution channel for Nvidia's hardware.
On the software side, Nebius closed the acquisition of Eigen AI in June to strengthen its model optimization capabilities. Raw compute power is increasingly commoditized; the software that runs the clusters efficiently is not. A separate deal for Tavily adds agentic search functions, targeting the AI agent market, which is forecast to grow from roughly $8 billion today to around $52 billion by 2030.
The financial physics of a capex monster
The bull case rests on three pillars: pre-sold demand, secured power, and a widening platform. Every bit of current capacity is fully booked, and the order pipeline grew 3.5 times quarter over quarter. Management reports that customers are already reserving capacity for 2027. Gross margin has swung from deeply negative in 2023 to nearly 69% by the end of 2025, and adjusted EBITDA turned positive in the first quarter of 2026 — earlier than expected.
For the full year 2026, Nebius management targets an annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of $7 billion to $9 billion, total revenue of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 40%. The first quarter already delivered a taste of the trajectory: total revenue soared 684% year over year to $399 million, while the AI core business grew 841%. The AI segment's ARR reached $1.9 billion.
But the gap between that $1.9 billion and the $7 billion-to-$9 billion target is the crux of the execution risk. To close it, Nebius plans capital expenditures of $20 billion to $25 billion in 2026 alone — up from a prior range of $16 billion to $20 billion. That implies spending on a scale that dwarfs current revenue. The company burned roughly $2.5 billion on hardware in just the first quarter.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The bear's math: timing, margins and volatility
The bear argument is not about demand; it is about the financial physics of building at this speed. The model assumes either a massive acceleration in revenue or persistently favorable financing conditions. Losing both simultaneously is a real risk. Management has already flagged margin volatility through 2026, with a likely pullback in the second quarter before a later recovery. If Q2 disappoints more than expected, the stock could face a fresh re-rating.
Execution risk is structural. Large projects behind the grid require local permits, and any delay in capacity ramps can push the timeline. If demand were to soften while supply ramps, infrastructure flips from growth driver to cost burden. The operating leverage that looks attractive in a bull case cuts the other way in a slowdown.
Two events will serve as the next filters: the Q2 earnings report, which will show the depth of the margin compression, and the Q3 capacity ramp, which will test whether contracted gigawatts translate into billable compute. The single metric that matters most is whether management can confirm in an interim update that the contracted power is actually powering revenue-generating servers.
The stock's relative strength index sits at 55.8, about 22% above its 50-day average — technically neutral, leaving the direction entirely to fundamental delivery. For now, Nebius has the backlog, the power contracts and the marquee customers. The question is whether it can turn all three into cash faster than the capex clock runs down.
Ad
Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer zu unseren Artikeln: Keine Anlageberatung, keine Kauf oder Verkaufsempfehlung. Angaben zu Kursen, Unternehmen und Märkten ohne Gewähr; Änderungen jederzeit möglich. Börsengeschäfte können zu hohen Verlusten führen. Unsere Beiträge werden ganz oder teilweise automatisiert mit Unterstützung von AI erstellt und geprüft.
