Nel ASA at the Crossroads: Oversold Signals Meet Broken Charts Ahead of Make-or-Break Report

Nel ASA stares at a technical paradox. The hydrogen specialist's shares closed at €0.20 on Friday, a 3.55% daily decline that extended the monthly rout to nearly 41%. The relative strength index sits at 31.9, deep in oversold territory and historically a precursor to counter-moves. Yet the stock trades below every major moving average — the 50-day at €0.27, the 100-day at €0.23, and the 200-day at €0.21 — all stacked above the current price in a textbook bearish alignment. The divergence between exhaustion signals and structural weakness leaves no room for complacency.

That tension converges on July 15, when Nel releases its half-year report. Until then, a mandatory quiet period bars management from investor calls, amplifying the uncertainty that has gripped the stock ever since CEO Håkon Volldal unexpectedly announced his departure in mid-June. Volldal remains in post during his notice period, but the board’s search for a successor has already eroded confidence. For a company with an annualized volatility of 85%, the combination of a leadership vacuum and a communication blackout is toxic.

Under the surface, the operational picture is equally fragile. First-quarter figures showed a sharp slowdown: order intake fell to 85 million Norwegian kroner, down from 312 million kroner a year earlier. Revenue ticked lower. The company retains a solid cash cushion of roughly 1.4 billion kroner, but the market is focused on whether that buffer is being deployed into genuine order growth or simply consumed by overhead. The half-year report must show that the pipeline of hydrogen projects is hardening into signed contracts, not just press releases.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The competition is not standing still. Plug Power secured a 275 MW electrolyser order for a Quebec project. OMV received €123 million in funding for a 140 MW green hydrogen plant in Austria, and the Austrian energy group is also partnering with Masdar on large-scale ventures. The US Department of Energy is channelling billions in loans toward nuclear-integrated energy projects. Nel needs to demonstrate it can compete in an arena where capital-rich rivals are moving fast.

Technically, the bulls can point to a plausible bounce case. The distance to the 200-day moving average is now only about 5%, and combined with the oversold RSI, the set-up has historically attracted dip buyers. A strong half-year report that confirms project milestones could push the stock back toward the 100-day line at €0.23, a 15% gain from current levels.

The bearish counter-argument carries at least as much weight. Nel has already lost three-quarters of its monthly order flow year-on-year. If the July 15 report reveals a further decline in cash reserves without a corresponding build in the order book, the psychological floor at €0.17 — the February low and current 52-week trough — will come under serious pressure. A break below that level would force a re-rating of the company’s entire market capitalisation, now around €388 million.

Whether Nel can stabilise or slip into uncharted territory hinges entirely on the content of that single document. For now, the most likely path is a consolidation between €0.17 and €0.20, with downside risk dominating. The 15th of July will decide which scenario becomes reality.

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