Nel ASA Faces a Critical Financial Test

Investors in Norwegian hydrogen technology firm Nel ASA are bracing for a pivotal moment. The upcoming release of its full-year 2025 and fourth-quarter results, scheduled for February 26, 2026, represents a crucial juncture for the company. Following a disappointing third quarter, the market is keenly watching to see if recent strategic initiatives can offset a persistent slowdown in new orders.

The third quarter of 2025 revealed significant challenges. Revenue contracted by 17% to 303 million Norwegian kroner (NOK). More alarmingly, the inflow of new orders collapsed by 64%, plummeting to just 57 million NOK. This dramatic decline has placed immense focus on the forthcoming report, where a stabilization in new business will be a key metric for scrutiny.

Another critical area for analysis is the company's liquidity position. While Nel reported cash reserves of approximately 1.8 billion NOK recently, ongoing capital investments continue to draw down these funds. The balance between spending on future growth and preserving financial stability will be under the microscope.

Strategic Push Amid Operational Headwinds

Despite these operational setbacks, Nel is aggressively advancing its technology roadmap. A major strategic milestone was reached in December with the final investment decision to industrialize its "Next Generation Pressurized Alkaline" platform at its Herøya facility. This project is a cornerstone of the company's growth strategy, bolstered by funding of up to 135 million euros from the EU Innovation Fund.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The initiative targets an eventual annual production capacity of 4 gigawatts. The initial phase involves an investment of roughly 300 million NOK to establish one gigawatt of capacity. Commercial operations for this phase are slated to begin in the first half of this year, with the first large-scale deliveries expected to follow in 2027.

Navigating a Challenging Sector Landscape

The broader macroeconomic environment continues to pose difficulties for hydrogen-focused companies like Nel. The sector's expansion is being hampered by high production costs and the slow pace of essential infrastructure development. These industry-wide headwinds make it challenging for equipment manufacturers to achieve profitable growth.

The upcoming financial report on February 26 will indicate whether recent project wins—including contracts for HyFuel and GreenH—have begun to translate into tangible financial improvements and helped replenish the order book. This disclosure will be quickly followed by the annual general meeting on April 10 and the Q1 2026 report on April 22, making the coming weeks a decisive period for the equity's trajectory.