Nel ASA: Record Orders and Trade War Headwinds Create a Fractured Picture
Published on 07/25/2026 at 04:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Norwegian hydrogen specialist Nel ASA finds itself caught between two opposing forces — a surge in electrolyser orders that signals strong industrial demand, and a punishing macro environment that has driven its shares dangerously close to a 52-week low. The stock closed at €0.1960 on Friday, down 2.49 percent on the day, leaving investors to weigh whether the company's operational momentum can ultimately outweigh the broader market turmoil.
Orders Boom While the Bottom Line Bleeds
Nel reported second-quarter order intake of 230 million Norwegian kroner, a staggering 224 percent jump from the same period last year. The order backlog swelled to 1.213 billion kroner by the end of June, with PEM electrolysers accounting for 96 percent of the intake — underscoring robust demand in the company's core business.
Yet the revenue picture tells a very different story. Sales from customer contracts slumped 12 percent to 153 million kroner, while a costly settlement with Iwatani Corporation of America weighed on quarterly EBITDA to the tune of 70 million kroner. The net loss widened to 189 million kroner, far deeper than the prior year's figure. The divergence between the order book and the income statement has left analysts struggling to assess when — or if — the pipeline will translate into sustainable margins.
A CEO Exit at a Critical Juncture
The operational challenges are compounded by a leadership vacuum. CEO Håkon Volldal announced his departure in June to take a role at another company, though he will remain in post until year-end. The timing is awkward: Nel is in the middle of a strategic restructuring that saw it spin off its fueling division to focus purely on electrolyser manufacturing. The company is betting heavily on its new PA-series platform, a pressurized alkaline technology that promises to cut system costs by 40 to 60 percent — a crucial lever for making green hydrogen cost-competitive.
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The search for a successor adds an unwelcome layer of uncertainty as Nel works to scale up production capacity. The company does have financial breathing room, however, with 1.328 billion kroner in cash at quarter-end — enough to fund the loss-making transition without an immediate capital raise.
Tariff Shock Adds to the Pressure
The domestic challenges are playing out against a deteriorating external backdrop. The United States has imposed new tariffs of 10 to 12.5 percent on 60 countries, triggering a broad sell-off in risk assets. Technology and renewable energy stocks have been hit especially hard, and Nel has not been spared. The stock now trades 20.26 percent below its 50-day moving average of €0.2462 and sits 46.27 percent below its 52-week high of €0.3655.
The relative strength index stands at 36.2, approaching but not yet in oversold territory — the traditional threshold sits at 30. That leaves statistical room for further downside before a technical bounce becomes more probable. The annualized 30-day volatility of 42.04 percent underscores just how vulnerable the stock is to the current risk-off environment.
The €0.17 Line in the Sand
The most critical technical level is the 52-week low of €0.1731, just 13.46 percent below Friday's close. A break below that mark would leave the stock without any established support in the immediate vicinity. On the upside, the 200-day moving average at €0.2147 offers the first meaningful resistance — roughly 9 percent above current levels.
The macro headwinds are formidable. Brent crude has been hovering near $100 a barrel amid Houthi attacks on tankers and heightened tensions between Iran and the US. If oil stays elevated, capital costs for industrial companies are likely to remain high, further pressuring hydrogen equities. The US tariffs also threaten to dampen European industrial orders, which could eventually feed through to Nel's pipeline.
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Mixed Signals from the Sector
Not all the broader signals are negative. Volkswagen reported a 50 percent jump in BEV orders in Europe for the second quarter, while Finnish refiner Neste plans to expand its North American renewable products position from September. Both developments point to sustained demand for decarbonization infrastructure that could ultimately benefit Nel.
The stock has actually gained 4.03 percent year-to-date despite the recent 7.36 percent pullback over the past 30 days. That resilience could provide a foundation for recovery if the macro environment stabilizes. The consensus analyst price target stands at roughly 2.12 kroner, or about €0.18 — close to the current level, suggesting limited upside expectations in the near term.
What Comes Next
The coming weeks will serve as a test of whether Nel can decouple from the broader tech sell-off. The first commercial orders for the new alkaline platform will be the most important catalyst to watch — only those will demonstrate whether the promised cost savings are achievable in practice. For now, the stock appears likely to remain in a volatile consolidation phase, with the €0.1731 support level acting as the key battleground between bulls betting on the hydrogen megatrend and bears concerned about near-term profitability and macro risk.
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