Nel ASA's 0.28 EUR Pivot Holds as Investors Digest Legal Settlement and Deteriorating Backlog

Nel ASA shares are locked in a tight technical battle around 0.28 EUR, a level that has seen both a 17% weekly rout and a 9.5% snap-back rebound in consecutive trading sessions. The stock now sits at a crossroads where a settled lawsuit has removed one cloud, but an eroding order book continues to test investor patience.

The legal chapter closed on 7 June when Nel ASA disclosed an agreement with Iwatani Corporation of America over hydrogen refueling stations in California. Nel itself will pay $7.5 million, while its Cavendish Hydrogen subsidiary contributes another $3 million. All parties have agreed to drop the litigation and have left the door open for future collaboration. The company stressed that the settlement ends further legal costs and eliminates US litigation risk. Markets initially welcomed the news, but the relief rally quickly faded, leaving the stock to trade on fundamentals.

And the fundamentals remain mixed at best. First-quarter 2026 revenue from customer contracts came in at 148 million Norwegian kroner, down 5% from the same period last year. EBITDA improved by 15 million kroner year-on-year but still landed at negative 100 million kroner. New orders slumped to just 85 million kroner, dragging the order backlog down 24% to 1.113 billion kroner. Nel still holds roughly 1.4 billion kroner in cash, providing a cushion, but the core problem persists: revenue is not growing fast enough to justify the current valuation.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Technically, the stock is navigating a narrow band of support. The 50-day moving average sits at 0.26 EUR, a level the recent bounce successfully defended, and the 200-day average trails at 0.21 EUR — some 34% below the current price. The 14-day relative strength index hovered around 47 after the bounce, neutral territory that neither signals overbought conditions nor a definitive sell-off. Yet the annualized 30-day volatility remains extreme at over 107%, meaning daily swings of 5% to 10% are routine and keep traders on edge.

The immediate outlook hinges on two factors: sustained price action above 0.28 EUR and the half-year report due 15 July. A close consistently above that level with rising volume could reopen the path back toward the 52-week high of 0.37 EUR. Conversely, a drop back under the 50-day average at 0.26 EUR would put the next support zone between 0.22 and 0.23 EUR in play. A structural bid from ten hydrogen-focused ETFs, led by the Global X Hydrogen UCITS ETF, provides a floor independent of company news, but it alone cannot reverse the downward pressure from weak operational data.

With a quiet period beginning in early July, Nel shares are likely to trade on sector-wide sentiment and thematic fund flows until the half-year numbers land. For now, the 0.28 EUR level acts as a referendum on whether the stock’s year-to-date gain of nearly 48% is built on solid ground or simply a speculative stack waiting to collapse.

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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 9 June

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