Nel ASA's 57% Rally Faces a Reality Check on July 15 as Orders Slump and Analysts Cry Sell
Published on 05/18/2026 at 06:15 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nel ASA’s stock has shot up nearly 57% since the start of the year, with roughly 15% of those gains arriving in the past seven days alone. Yet on July 15, when the Norwegian electrolyser maker unveils its second-quarter numbers, investors will find out whether the surge is built on more than just two modest orders and a shifting narrative.
The rally has been powered by a pair of contract wins. Nel Hydrogen US landed a roughly $7 million deal with the Douglas County Public Utility District in Washington State, marking the first time a public utility will operate a Nel electrolyser project — it will convert surplus hydropower into green hydrogen. A second award, of similar size, came from Mesure Process, a subsidiary of Synqo Energies, for a European installation. Meanwhile, a new storyline has emerged: hydrogen as a tool for decentralised energy security and even military applications, giving the stock a tailwind that goes beyond climate arguments.
But the disconnect between price action and analyst sentiment remains glaring. Among the 11 analysts covering Nel, the average price target sits at 2.12 Norwegian kroner, a far cry from the current Oslo listing of 3.22 kroner. Berenberg has a target of 2.30 kroner, Citigroup 2.40, and RBC Capital Markets, the most optimistic with a “Neutral” rating, sets its bar at 3.00 kroner. The consensus is unambiguously: sell.
The fundamentals do little to challenge that view. First-quarter revenue from customer contracts slipped 5% year on year to 148 million kroner, while EBITDA landed at minus 100 million. Order intake collapsed 73% and the backlog shrank 24%. Nel has slashed its headcount by 26% from its peak. It holds roughly 1.4 billion kroner in cash, enough, management says, to fund operations until the end of 2026. A potential EU Innovation Fund grant of up to €135 million — earmarked for industrialising its new pressured alkaline electrolyser platform — has yet to be drawn.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
That new platform, already launched, targets a different cost structure. Separately, Nel is developing a PEM platform that it says could cut stack costs by 70%, though that product will not be commercial until 2028 or 2029. For now, the cash runway and patents are the safety net beneath a stock trading nearly 50% above its 200-day moving average of 0.20 euros.
This week’s macro calendar could influence the narrative. The Federal Reserve publishes its April meeting minutes on Wednesday, offering clues on interest rates that directly affect the financing of capital-intensive hydrogen projects. Thursday brings flash purchasing managers’ indices for Germany and the eurozone — early reads on industrial activity in Nel’s core markets. China’s industrial production and retail sales data, due Monday, matter too as the country gains weight in the global hydrogen race.
The stock’s relative strength index sits at 32, historically an oversold signal — an odd reading given the rally’s ferocity and hinting that momentum traders may be driving the move rather than fundamentals. Board chairman Arvid Moss at least signalled some insider conviction, buying 100,000 shares in April at an average price of 2.25 kroner.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
CEO Håkon Volldal says he is in talks with multiple potential customers in Europe and North America for projects ranging from 50 to 150 megawatts. Whether those discussions turn into binding orders will determine if the rally can withstand the July 15 earnings release. The company and industry watchers expect 2026 to bring more final investment decisions on large-scale green hydrogen plants, but the proof will lie in the contract backlog. Until then, the stock is sailing on hope — and two small deals.
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