Nel ASA’s Critical Juncture: A Pivotal Phase for the Hydrogen Pioneer

Following a sobering 2025, hydrogen specialist Nel ASA faces mounting pressure. The coming months represent a decisive period for the company, with investors keenly focused on whether its next-generation technology can finally unlock commercial success or if hesitant market conditions will continue to act as a brake. The spotlight has now shifted firmly onto the operational execution of its strategic plans.

Central to the company's future competitiveness is the advancement of its electrolyzer technology. The primary focus rests on a new generation of pressurized alkaline electrolyzers. After the final investment decision to industrialize this platform was made in December 2025, the commercial market launch is anticipated in the first half of 2026.

This technological leap is designed to reduce capital expenditure (CAPEX) and enhance energy efficiency—two factors critical to the economic viability of green hydrogen. A successful market introduction, followed by the planned production scale-up in 2027, could materially improve the firm's margin profile.

The Order Book Imperative

Like the broader hydrogen industry, Nel continues to navigate delays in major projects and regulatory uncertainties. For the company's equity valuation, the crucial task is now converting technological progress into tangible revenue.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

Market participants are paying particularly close attention to the progression of Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) studies. These are widely viewed as a critical precursor to firm equipment orders. The successful completion of such studies would serve as a key indicator that customer interest is translating into concrete sales pipelines.

Financial Snapshot and Sector Headwinds

A concrete look into the company's financial health is expected with the fourth-quarter 2025 report, scheduled for release on March 4, 2026. The external environment, however, remains challenging. While support mechanisms like the EU Innovation Fund bolster the sector, high production costs and a lack of infrastructure continue to suppress demand.

In key markets such as the United Kingdom, industry representatives have cited insufficient off-take commitments, which in turn delays final investment decisions on projects.

The upcoming quarterly report in March, coupled with the imminent technical market launch, provides the next fixed milestones for assessing the stock. The central question for the share price trajectory will be whether the promised efficiency gains are sufficient to stimulate demand from pivotal sectors like steel and transportation, despite the prevailing difficult macroeconomic and regulatory framework.