Nel ASA’s High-Stakes Gamble: Can a New Electrolyser Platform Rescue a Sinking Order Book?

The numbers tell a troubling story, yet the stock is flying. Nel ASA has seen its order intake collapse by 73% to just 85 million Norwegian kroner in the first quarter, while revenue slipped to 152 million kroner. The net loss, though improved, still stands at a painful 144 million kroner. But investors have looked past the red ink, pushing the share price to a 52-week high of €0.28 — a gain of roughly 44% since the start of the year. The catalyst? A combination of EU cash and a technological gamble that could either revive the company or saddle it with costly write-downs.

The centrepiece of that gamble arrives on May 6, when Nel unveils a new pressurised alkaline electrolyser platform at its Herøya facility. CEO Håkon Volldal is promising nothing less than a step-change in green hydrogen economics. The modular outdoor system is designed to slash capital expenditure by 40% to 60% per installation, while operating expenses could drop by as much as 20%. This isn’t a slide-deck concept — a functioning physical unit will be on display.

Brussels has thrown its weight behind the project. The EU Innovation Fund is contributing up to €135 million, covering roughly 60% of eligible technology development costs. An initial milestone payment of more than €10 million is imminent. Separately, the bloc has opened a €600 million funding pot for cross-border energy infrastructure, adding another potential source of support for Nel’s ambitions.

But the transition comes with risks. Two older production lines in Herøya are already idled, and a successful launch of the new platform could trigger impairment charges on those legacy assets. Commercial-scale manufacturing isn’t expected until 2027, leaving a long gap during which Nel must fund development without the cushion of robust sales.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The cost-cutting programme is biting. Headcount has been reduced by roughly a quarter, and personnel expenses have fallen by more than a fifth. The EBITDA loss narrowed to 100 million kroner in Q1, an improvement of 15 million kroner year-on-year. With liquid assets of around 1.44 billion kroner, the company has a comfortable cash buffer — but it is burning through it while waiting for the new technology to generate revenue.

Analysts remain deeply sceptical. Not a single one of the twelve covering Nel recommends buying the stock; the majority advise selling. Berenberg trimmed its price target from 2.60 to 2.30 kroner in March, while the consensus target sits at roughly 2.13 kroner, with a wide range of 1.20 to 4.20 kroner reflecting the deep uncertainty. The current share price of around 0.28 euros (roughly 2.10 kroner) is already pricing in the platform’s success — not the underlying losses.

Volldal is trying to open new fronts. He has increasingly positioned hydrogen as a tool for energy security and defence, pitching decentralised power generation for military and critical infrastructure applications. A recent order worth $7 million for containerised PEM electrolysers destined for European hydrogen refuelling stations and industrial clients lends some credibility to that narrative, though deliveries are not scheduled until 2027.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The market’s verdict will come in two instalments. First, the May 6 event in Herøya must demonstrate that the promised cost reductions are real and that the technology can win future orders. Then, on July 15, the second-quarter results will provide the first hard evidence of whether the strategy is translating into commercial traction. Until then, Nel remains a story of high hopes, EU subsidies, and a dangerously thin order book — a combination that has made for a spectacular rally, but could just as easily unravel.

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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 1 May

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