Nel ASA Stock Hits 52-Week High Despite 73% Order Drop and Zero Buy Ratings

Nel ASA has carved out a peculiar position in the market. Its shares are trading just shy of a 52-week high at roughly €0.35, having surged 83% since the start of the year and nearly 50% in the past 30 days alone. Yet not a single analyst among the 13 covering the company rates the stock a buy. Seven recommend selling, six say hold, and the average price target of around €0.20 points to a 45% decline from current levels.

The catalyst for the rally was unmistakable: a product launch. In May, Nel unveiled its new pressurized alkaline electrolyzer after eight years of development and successful testing at its Herøya site in Norway. The company claims the system will cost less than $1,450 per kilowatt on a turnkey basis, while many competitors’ total costs exceed $3,000 per kilowatt. For a 25 MW plant that figure is already calculated; larger installations should deliver even greater savings. An industrialisation plan is in motion: a final investment decision came last December, production capacity at Herøya is slated to rise to 1 GW per year with a road map to 4 GW, and the EU has pledged up to €135 million from its Innovation Fund, covering as much as 60% of eligible costs.

But the order book tells a starkly different story. In the first quarter of 2026, Nel booked just 85 million Norwegian kroner in new orders — a plunge of 73% compared with the same period last year. The total backlog shrank 24% to 1.1 billion kroner. Management conceded that the current pipeline is insufficient to achieve meaningful capacity utilisation for 2027. Reflecting on the quarter, CEO Håkon Volldal described it as “rather quiet.”

First-quarter financials reinforced the caution. Revenue slipped 5% year-on-year to 148 million kroner, while EBITDA swung to a loss of 100 million kroner. Nel has cut its workforce by 26% from its peak, reducing personnel costs by 21%. But the company itself warns that the headcount reductions have impaired manufacturing and delivery capacity.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?

The underlying business splits into two distinct stories. The PEM segment saw weaker revenue but improved project margins; its backlog stands at 843 million kroner. Since the quarter ended, Nel has signed a new PEM order worth $7 million, and Volldal expects more contracts by mid-year, especially for modular, containerised systems ranging from 2.5 MW to 50 MW that can be delivered in under twelve months. The alkaline segment, by contrast, grew revenue 6% and improved EBITDA significantly, though its backlog is comparatively thin at 270 million kroner.

Several near-term events could test the current enthusiasm. Nel expects to receive the first €11 million tranche from the EU Innovation Fund during the second quarter — a payment that would both bolster liquidity and signal project progress. Meanwhile, the company is reviewing the book value of two idled production lines at Herøya originally built for atmospheric alkaline electrolysers. An impairment charge is possible, adding to the 799 million kroner in writedowns already recognised in fiscal 2025.

The broader policy backdrop remains a headwind. Europe’s hydrogen strategy is advancing, but the EU’s strict RFNBO rules for renewable fuels of non-biological origin are widely seen as a drag on project development, adding an estimated $1.0 to $2.0 per kilogram in extra costs.

Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

All eyes are now on 15 July, when Nel publishes its half-year results. Until then, every new order announcement — particularly in the PEM segment — will be closely scrutinised. If the order book shows no clear recovery by that date, the yawning gap between the share price and analyst expectations will become much harder to justify.

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Nel ASA Stock: New Analysis - 31 May

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