Nemetschek’s 45% Slide Masks Strong Q1 Growth as Jefferies Trims Target but Stays Bullish
26.06.2026 - 18:45:03 | boerse-global.de
The disconnect between operational momentum and market sentiment at Nemetschek has rarely been starker. The German software group reported a stellar first quarter, yet its shares have lost around 45% since the start of the year, touching new 52-week lows and leaving analysts scrambling to recalibrate their valuation models.
Jefferies joined that recalibration on June 25, slashing its price target for Nemetschek from €90 to €70. Analyst Charles Brennan kept his “Buy” recommendation intact, but the 22% cut in the target underscores the pressure on a stock that has already shed more than 40% of its value in 2026. With the shares trading at roughly €52.75 at the time of the revision, Jefferies still sees upside potential – but the message is clearly more cautious than before.
The technical picture offers little comfort. The stock ended Wednesday’s Xetra session at €52.05, down 3.16% on the day, and slipped further to €51.43 on Thursday morning. That puts it just 4.6% above the fresh 52-week low of €50.45 set the previous day, while the distance from the August 2025 high of €137.90 exceeds 60%. The relative strength index at 34.8 suggests oversold territory, but a bearish “Inside Day” signal with a “Sell” rating from wallstreetONLINE adds to the caution. Over the past month, the shares have fallen nearly 21%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nemetschek?
None of this weakness is rooted in the company’s recent operating performance. Nemetschek’s first-quarter revenue climbed 17.0% on a currency-adjusted basis to €313.1 million. Subscription and SaaS revenues surged 35.4% – a clear sign that the transition to recurring models is accelerating. EBITDA rose almost 30% to €98.4 million, pushing the margin to 31.4%. Earnings per share advanced 34.5% to €0.52, while net income reached €60.4 million.
The Build segment was the standout. Segment revenue expanded 29.8% on a currency-neutral basis to €134.7 million, and EBITDA there jumped nearly 49% to €53.2 million. The broad-based growth underpins management’s full-year guidance: organic revenue expansion of 14% to 15% and an EBITDA margin between 32% and 33% – targets that were reconfirmed in the first-quarter report.
What, then, is unsettling investors? The market appears to be penalising the valuation premium that European software stocks with high growth expectations once commanded. Even strong SaaS metrics and robust margins have failed to stem the selling, as the sector broadly reprices against a backdrop of rising interest rates and shifting risk appetite. Nemetschek, despite its solid fundamentals, has been caught in that downdraft.
The next major test for the stock comes on July 30, 2026, when Nemetschek releases its half-year results. Investors will be watching closely whether the growth pace from the first quarter can be sustained and whether the company can convince the market that its underlying momentum outweighs the sector-wide headwinds. Until then, the divergence between a healthy business and a battered share price is likely to persist.
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