Nemetschek's Record Deal Overshadowed by Oracle-Fueled Sector Selloff
20.06.2026 - 16:38:20 | boerse-global.de
The Munich-based construction software group has just struck the largest acquisition in its history, yet its shares continue to touch new lows. The €2.4bn purchase of US software provider HCSS from Thoma Bravo — with the deal expected to close in the second half of 2026 — adds a powerful growth engine and deepens Nemetschek’s presence in North America. But the market has responded with a shrug at best.
On Friday, the stock closed at €53.55, barely above the 52-week trough of €52.90 set the previous day. Since the start of the year, the shares have plunged roughly 41%, wiping out more than a third of their value. Over the past month alone, Nemetschek shed nearly 19% while the MDAX and TecDAX each gained over 4%.
The sell-off has little to do with Nemetschek’s own performance. Instead, it is a symptom of a broader reassessment of European software stocks triggered by Oracle’s latest earnings. The US giant posted record cloud revenue but also disclosed heavy capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, stoking fears of shrinking free cash flow. The contagion has dragged down sector heavyweights such as SAP and now Nemetschek, despite the latter’s strong operational metrics.
Nemetschek’s first-quarter numbers, released in April, paint a starkly different picture from the share price. Currency-adjusted revenue rose 17% to €313.1m, while operating earnings climbed 22%. Recurring revenues now account for more than 92% of total sales, after climbing 21% to around €1.19bn. Management has maintained its full-year guidance: revenue growth of up to 15% and an operating margin of just over 32%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nemetschek?
The HCSS acquisition will add $2.4bn in enterprise value, with Nemetschek taking a 72% stake and Thoma Bravo retaining the remaining 28% as a minority shareholder. The deal will increase net debt by approximately €450m. Synergies in the mid-double-digit million-euro range are expected by 2028, split roughly equally between revenue gains and cost savings.
Analysts remain broadly bullish, with three-quarters of those covering the stock recommending a buy. The average price target stands at €93.38, implying potential upside of more than 70% from current levels. Goldman Sachs recently trimmed its target from €110 to €100 but maintained its buy rating, citing the robust construction segment. At the annual general meeting in May, shareholders approved a thirteenth consecutive dividend increase, lifting the payout to €0.68 per share, and authorised a new share buyback programme.
Technical indicators underline the depth of the retreat. The stock is trading well below its 200-day moving average of around €80, and the relative strength index at 33.3 signals deeply oversold conditions. So far, no sustained bounce has materialised.
Nemetschek at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next catalyst comes on 30 July, when Nemetschek reports first-half results. If the company confirms continued double-digit subscription growth and provides concrete updates on the HCSS integration roadmap, the gap between operational reality and market perception could begin to narrow. Until then, the Oracle shadow and sector-wide caution are likely to keep the shares under pressure.
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