Nokia’s Pre-Earnings Bounce: A Pause Before the AI Pivot Gets Put to the Test
Published on 07/22/2026 at 12:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nokia’s stock clawed back some ground on Tuesday, surging 5.65% to close at €9.39, just a day before the Finnish telecom equipment maker is due to release its second-quarter and first-half results. The rally offered a brief reprieve after a brutal stretch that saw the shares shed nearly a quarter of their value in recent weeks, leaving investors to wonder whether this marks the start of a genuine recovery or merely a dead-cat bounce ahead of more pain.
The quarterly report, scheduled for release around 8:00 Finnish time on Wednesday, July 23, will be followed by an analyst webcast and Q&A session in the afternoon. The stakes could hardly be higher. The market consensus pencils in second-quarter earnings per share between €0.051 and €0.058 on revenue of roughly €4.83 billion — a figure that would represent about 16% of Nokia’s full-year profit expectation, at the top end of the company’s historical seasonal range of 12% to 16% for the period. Missing that mark could be interpreted as a warning signal for the remainder of the year.
The stock’s recent trajectory has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. After hitting a 52-week high of €14.97 on June 3 — a level that translated into a year-to-date gain of nearly 66% — Nokia shares have since tumbled 37.26% from that peak. The decline accelerated earlier this month when a brief rally above €11 quickly fizzled, with sellers regaining control and driving the stock as low as €8.65 last week, a drop of roughly 19% in a matter of days.
Despite the carnage, the longer-term picture still shows a stock that has been fundamentally re-rated. At current levels, Nokia trades 20.87% above its 200-day moving average of €7.77, underscoring how much the equity has been repriced over the past year even as the recent correction has been severe.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?
The root cause of the volatility is clear: Nokia is in the midst of a strategic transformation from a traditional hardware vendor into an infrastructure supplier for AI-driven networks, a pivot supercharged by Nvidia’s $1 billion investment in October 2025, which gave the chipmaker a roughly 2.9% stake. The partnership aims to develop “AI-RAN” — artificial intelligence for radio access networks — and has been the primary catalyst for the stock’s meteoric rise. But the market is now demanding proof that this promise will translate into tangible earnings growth, and investors appear unwilling to pay a premium for future potential alone.
The second-quarter report will be the first major test of whether that skepticism is warranted. The key question is whether Nokia’s high-margin software and AI businesses can compensate for persistent weakness in its legacy telecom equipment operations. In the first quarter, the AI & Cloud segment posted 49% net sales growth, while Optical Networks expanded by 20%. Whether that momentum carried into the second quarter will be the single biggest determinant of how the stock reacts.
Beyond the headline numbers, analysts will be scrutinizing management’s commentary on sequential net sales growth — which the company has targeted in a 5% to 9% corridor — and the evolution of the comparable operating margin. Both metrics will need to justify the elevated valuation multiples the stock currently commands for 2026. Currency effects are expected to be a non-factor this time, with the euro-dollar exchange rate hovering near Nokia’s planning assumptions, leaving operational performance as the purest driver of the results.
Technically, the stock’s relative strength index (RSI) stands at 37.0 to 37.5, indicating it has cooled significantly from the June highs but has not yet dipped into oversold territory below 30. With an annualized 30-day volatility of 68%, Nokia remains an exceptionally choppy name. The RSI reading suggests selling pressure may be exhausting, but the shares still trade 38% below their June peak and 20% below the 50-day moving average of €11.80, highlighting the depth of the correction.
Meanwhile, Nokia has been quietly building a pipeline of new business that could support the second half of the year. The company extended a multi-year contract with MEO, the Portuguese subsidiary of Altice, to modernize its 5G infrastructure, displacing established competitors in the process. It also signed a 5G expansion agreement with Taiwan Mobile to accelerate the deployment of AI-native mobile networks in Taiwan. In the defense sector, Nokia Defense deepened its partnership with NestAI to deliver AI-powered capabilities for secure, NATO-aligned networks. Additional 5G rollout contracts in India and Taiwan are said to have secured an order backlog for the second half, according to analyst estimates.
Nokia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Yet the competitive landscape remains fierce. In the AI data center market, Arista Networks is emerging as a rival, while Ericsson continues to be the dominant competitor in traditional telecom gear. Nokia is fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously, and the market is watching to see whether its broad portfolio of AI network technology, new customer wins, and 5G solutions can deliver the operating leverage needed to justify the stock’s re-rating.
Wednesday’s report will either validate the AI transformation narrative with concrete numbers or confirm that the recent bounce was nothing more than a brief pause before the next leg down. For Nokia shareholders, the wait is almost over.
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Nokia Stock: New Analysis - 22 July
Fresh Nokia information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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