Novo Nordisk Faces a Double Squeeze: Lilly’s Record-Breaking Data and a High-Stakes Court Date
Published on 07/25/2026 at 13:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Eli Lilly has thrown down a fresh gauntlet in the GLP-1 arms race, unveiling late-stage data that shows its experimental drug Retatrutide driving a 22.6% average weight loss in patients with severe obesity and cardiovascular disease — a result that puts Novo Nordisk’s pipeline strategy under a harsh spotlight. The US drugmaker plans to file for FDA approval in the first quarter of 2027, positioning the triple-receptor agonist as the third pillar of its obesity portfolio alongside the Zepbound injection and the recently launched Foundayo tablet.
The TRIUMPH-3 study, which tracked patients on a 12-milligram weekly dose over 80 weeks, translated to roughly 25 kilograms of weight loss. A separate trial involving patients with type 2 diabetes delivered a 20.8% average reduction. Side effects including diarrhea, nausea, and constipation fell within the expected range for this drug class. With five positive Phase 3 studies now in hand, Lilly is betting Retatrutide will cement its leadership in a market projected to exceed $100 billion by the end of the decade.
That ambition comes at a delicate moment for Novo Nordisk. The Danish company is still nursing the wounds from a disappointing CagriSema readout, which failed to outperform Lilly’s tirzepatide in a head-to-head comparison. JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott warned in February 2026 that the result makes it difficult for CagriSema to claw back market share from Zepbound. Novo’s next concrete catalyst is the pending FDA decision on CagriSema, followed by Lilly’s planned Retatrutide submission early next year.
A Legal Escalation Adds a New Layer of Uncertainty
Beyond the pipeline pressure, Novo Nordisk is waging a parallel battle in US federal court. The company announced Friday it will seek a preliminary injunction against Eli Lilly over what it calls misleading comparative advertising for Zepbound and Mounjaro. The hearing is set for August 17 before a federal judge in New Jersey, just days after Novo filed its initial lawsuit.
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At the heart of the dispute are television spots in which Lilly compares its highest tested doses of Zepbound and Mounjaro with lower doses of Novo’s Wegovy and Ozempic. Novo argues that Lilly relies on outdated data from the Surmount-5 and Surpass-2 trials while ignoring newer, higher doses — specifically a 7.2-milligram Wegovy dose approved in March and a 2-milligram Ozempic dose. One widely aired Lilly ad claims an average weight loss of 50 pounds on Zepbound versus 33 pounds on Wegovy; Novo counters that the higher Wegovy dose achieves 47 pounds in more recent analyses. The revised Zepbound spot has generated more than 700 million impressions since April.
Novo is seeking a permanent injunction, corrective advertising, and damages, citing violations of the US Lanham Act. Lilly has rejected the allegations, stating its campaigns are based on the only direct head-to-head studies between the two drug classes.
Market reaction to the legal offensive has been mixed. BMO analyst Evan Seigerman sees it as evidence of a more aggressive business approach from Novo. Sven Borho of Orbimed, however, cautions that the company would be better served focusing on its pipeline rather than tying up resources in litigation.
Prescription Data Shows a Widening Gap
The courtroom clash unfolds against a backdrop of diverging commercial momentum in the US. In the week through Friday, weekly prescriptions for Novo’s oral Wegovy tablet climbed to roughly 169,800, up about 10% from the prior week. Lilly’s Zepbound, meanwhile, rose nearly 8% to around 710,000 prescriptions, giving it a 58.9% market share. The Wegovy tablet has reached 3 million total prescriptions within five months, with more than 80% of new patients being first-time GLP-1 users.
Citi, which raised its Novo Nordisk price target to 330 Danish kroner, points to the oral Wegovy launch as a key offset to pricing pressure. The bank lifted its 2026 revenue and profit estimates by 4% to 5% and its per-share earnings forecasts for 2027 through 2030 by roughly 7%. But near-term headwinds remain: Citi expects second-quarter adjusted operating profit of 27.2 billion kroner, a 9% decline at constant exchange rates, with revenue of 72.7 billion kroner, down 1%. Both figures exclude effects from the US 340B drug discount program.
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Stock Shows Tentative Recovery but Faces a Pivotal August
Novo Nordisk shares closed Friday at €42.85 in European trading, up 1.19%, though the stock shed 2.49% over the week. The current price sits 6.17% above its 50-day moving average of €40.36, suggesting the recovery from March lows is intact even as competitive pressure mounts. Over 12 months, however, the stock has lost 28.76%.
Investors now face a packed calendar: the FDA decision on CagriSema, Lilly’s Retatrutide filing, the August 17 injunction hearing, and Novo’s own second-quarter earnings on August 5. Citi’s forecast of a 9% operating profit decline underscores the pricing squeeze in both the obesity and diabetes franchises. Whether the oral Wegovy tablet’s momentum — contributing an estimated 4 billion kroner in revenue — can offset that drag will be one of the key questions when Novo reports.
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