Novo Nordisk Leverages Implant Tech, Oral Pill, and Aggressive Buyback to Counter Eli Lilly's Momentum
Published on 07/11/2026 at 12:16 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The competitive heat from Eli Lilly is forcing Novo Nordisk onto the front foot. The US rival’s tirzepatide franchise — Mounjaro and Zepbound — generated a combined $12.9 billion in first-quarter sales alone, with Mounjaro up 125% year-on-year and Zepbound climbing 80%. In South Korea, Lilly’s Mounjaro has already pulled in 323.2 billion won against just 104 billion won for Wegovy, a shortfall that prompted Novo’s local unit to merge its diabetes and obesity divisions this month. Observers read the restructuring as a direct response to Lilly’s aggressive push into the Asian market.
Novo Nordisk is not standing still. The Danish giant has confirmed a clinical study of NNC0662-0419, a next-generation obesity candidate designed to achieve higher doses without escalating side effects. The trial pits the new molecule against semaglutide and placebo in a dose-escalation regimen, with safety and tolerability as primary endpoints. Separately, a non-exclusive agreement with California’s Vivani Medical gives Novo access to NPM-139, a long-acting semaglutide implant. The tiny device uses Vivanis’s NanoPortal technology to deliver a continuous release under the skin, potentially pushing dosing intervals well beyond current weekly injections. There are no upfront payments, milestones, or royalties in the deal — merely a license to test the technology internally. Vivani plans its own first-in-human study by mid-2026, using Wegovy injections as a comparator.
Oral Wegovy is gaining traction in the UK, where a starter pack retails for ÂŁ69 and a monthly maximum dose costs ÂŁ189. Clinical data show weight loss of up to 17% over 52 weeks, and the UK medicines regulator has now approved semaglutide for advanced liver fibrosis as well. The National Health Service does not cover the pill, limiting access to private patients for now. In the United States, adoption has been much faster: more than three million prescriptions were written within five months, most of them for first-time GLP-1 users.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
A buyback programme of up to 15 billion Danish kroner, running for twelve months from 4 February 2026, is providing additional support. Between 6 May 2026 and 1 February 2027, the company plans to repurchase B-shares worth as much as 11.2 billion kroner. So far, roughly 23 million shares have been bought back at an average price of 270.32 kroner, for a total outlay of about 6.2 billion kroner. Novo Nordisk now holds nearly 40.2 million treasury B-shares, representing 0.9% of its share capital.
Analysts are turning more constructive. HSBC lifted its price target from 280 to 300 Danish kroner last week while maintaining a “Hold” rating. Danske Bank went further, calling for 365 kroner with a buy recommendation. The broader consensus, based on 14 analysts polled by S&P Global, stands at $46.72 per share, with a range of $39.56 to $64.19, and a majority still rate the stock a buy. A dissenting “Hold” opinion pegs the target at just $42, citing a weak 2026 outlook and growing pricing pressure across the GLP-1 market.
The stock closed Friday at €43.32, up 1.29%, extending a 16.78% gain over the past 30 days. Since hitting a twelve-month low of €30.25 on 2 March, shares have recovered 43.21%. Yet the year-to-date loss still stands at 3.04%, and the stock remains nearly 30% below last July’s high of €61.20. Technically, the equity trades 9.6% above its 50-day moving average of €39.51 and 6.7% above the 200-day average of €40.60. The relative strength index of 66 signals a zone approaching overbought, while annualized 30-day volatility of 30.23% reflects the sharp swings since the March trough.
The buyback runs through February 2027, and fresh pipeline data from the NNC0662-0419 study keep investor interest alive. Whether the steep recovery since March is fundamentally justified or technically driven will likely be settled when Novo Nordisk releases its half-year results — the next real test of momentum.
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Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 11 July
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