Novo Nordisk’s Oral Wegovy Outpaces Eli Lilly Fivefold, Yet Jefferies Stays on the Sidelines

The first-week prescription data for Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill has turned heads on Wall Street, but not enough to shake the analyst community’s cautious stance. The Danish drugmaker notched 18,410 new prescriptions in the US during the launch week, against just 3,707 for Eli Lilly’s competing product Foundayo — a five-to-one advantage that has helped lift the stock 22% over the past three months. The shares closed the final week of May at €39.05, up 0.81% on the week, as the gap to industry leaders narrows.

Jefferies, however, has held firm on a Hold rating with a price target of 270 Danish kroner — a level still below the current share price. The bank sees no immediate catalyst for a re-rating, pointing instead to persistent pricing pressure in the GLP-1 space and the lingering overhang from compounded copycat drugs. During the peak of supply shortages, compounded GLP-1 products captured roughly a third of the market; that share has since fallen to around 15%. Jefferies expects it could halve again within the next year under regulatory and competitive pressure, but warns the segment will not disappear quickly. For Novo Nordisk, less compounding bolsters demand for its branded Wegovy and Ozempic, but any price concessions needed to defend market share would limit the upside — a tension that underpins the unchanged target.

The success of the oral formulation — the first tablet version of semaglutide — marks a strategic leap beyond the injection franchise. Patients have shown a clear preference for a pill when efficacy is comparable, and Novo Nordisk is leaning on decades of brand recognition and a well-oiled US sales network. Meanwhile, the European Medicines Agency’s human medicines committee has recommended approval of the oral GLP-1 pill for obesity, alongside a positive opinion for the 7.2 mg prefilled Wegovy pen, which delivers an average weight loss of up to 20.7%. On the clinical front, the company presented real-world POSEIDON study data at the EAS Congress in Athens on May 26, showing that two in five patients with existing cardiovascular disease still carry persistent inflammation — a finding Novo is using to target inflammation as a direct risk factor for heart attacks and strokes. Further data on CagriSema and Zenagamtid were unveiled at the scientific sessions of the American Diabetes Association 2026, widening the company’s cardiometabolic pipeline.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Scaling production remains the critical bottleneck. The stock now trades well above its 50-day moving average of €35.27, but it is still off 12.59% year-to-date and down 35.73% over the past twelve months. At €39.05, the shares sit 44.31% below the 52-week high of €70.13. The relative strength index stands at about 48, a neutral reading, while the price is nearly 7% below the 200-day moving average — a sign that the medium-term trend has yet to turn decisively positive.

Novo Nordisk is pouring $4.1 billion into a new production facility in North Carolina that is scheduled to come online between 2027 and 2029. Until then, the company must meet surging demand for both the Ozempic and Wegovy oral versions from existing capacity. A steady share buyback is providing a floor: since February 4, the group has repurchased roughly 17 million B-shares at an average price of 262 Danish kroner, for a total outlay of about 4.5 billion kroner. The program, which runs until February 2027, is authorized for up to 15 billion kroner. Yet the buyback alone has not been enough to quiet analyst skepticism. Jefferies wants concrete evidence that branded volume can accelerate without deeper price concessions — and the five-to-one launch triumph, while impressive, has not yet provided that proof.

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Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 30 May

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