Novo Nordisk’s Pill and Medicare Double Act Fails to Silence Analyst Doubts
Published on 07/05/2026 at 22:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A dual catalyst – the UK launch of an oral version of Wegovy and a fresh US Medicare subsidy for seniors – has failed to produce a uniform bullish bet on Novo Nordisk shares. The stock closed Europe’s trading week at €43.50, down 1.20%, even as the Danish drugmaker unveils what many see as its most significant commercial gambit in years.
Analyst Camp Remains Deeply Split
The optimism surrounding the company’s turnaround is far from universal. DNB Carnegie trimmed its price target to 420 Danish kroner from 430, though it kept a buy rating. Jefferies and JPMorgan, meanwhile, both maintain neutral stances. Jefferies did raise its target, but left the stock at “Hold” – a signal that a higher price objective does not equate to renewed conviction.
The stock’s trajectory mirrors this hesitancy. Over the past month it has gained roughly 19.5%, but the one-year return shows a 25.92% decline. At €43.50, the share still trades 28.92% below its 52-week high of €61.20 from July 2025, though it has rallied 43.80% from the March trough of €30.25.
UK Oral Wegovy Hits the Ground Running
Monday marks the official launch of Wegovy in pill form across Britain, a move that swaps the needle for a daily tablet and targets a far wider patient pool. The response has been immediate: Simple Online Pharmacy, one of the country’s digital dispensaries, reports 10,000 pre-orders alone. Patients will pay approximately £79 per month for the starter dose and up to £229 for the highest strength, a price tag underpinned by clinical trial data showing an average weight loss of nearly 17%.
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Private buyers can access the drug straight away, but NHS patients face a wait until at least 2028. The UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) had already granted conditional approval for Wegovy’s active ingredient, semaglutide, to treat metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) in adults with moderate-to-severe liver fibrosis – a nod that expands the drug’s therapeutic reach beyond weight management and cardiovascular risk reduction. However, patients on the state health service will only receive coverage once the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) completes its own clinical and economic assessment.
Medicare Opens the Door in the US
Across the Atlantic, a separate catalyst has been building since July. A new Medicare programme now offers obesity patients among the senior population access to Wegovy at a copay of $50 per month, unlocking roughly four million potential beneficiaries. The programme is designed to convert the early prescription success of the oral Wegovy pill into durable revenue growth. Analyst projections point to a significant demand boost in the second half of the year.
Novo Nordisk has already filled more than three million global prescriptions for the oral tablet, with the vast majority representing patients new to the therapy.
First-Quarter Hangover and Mixed Growth Signals
The tailwinds from both launches are still being weighed against first-quarter earnings that bore the imprint of the US 340B drug discount programme. A provision tied to that initiative depressed both reported revenue and operating profit. Currency-adjusted figures showed a 4% decline in adjusted sales and a 6% drop in adjusted operating profit.
The obesity segment, on an adjusted basis, grew 22% in the period. Lower realised prices weighed on US operations, while international markets continued to benefit from volume expansion. That mixed picture helps explain why analysts are struggling to reach consensus even as demand for GLP-1 therapies surges.
Eli Lilly’s Growth Tempo Widens the Gap
The competitive landscape remains the most persistent headwind. Eli Lilly posted first-quarter 2026 revenue of $19.8 billion, a 56% jump, with Mounjaro contributing $8.662 billion and Zepbound adding $4.160 billion. Both drugs are expanding far faster than Novo Nordisk’s adjusted core business. Lilly now commands an estimated 60% share of the global GLP-1 market, leaving Novo Nordisk with 40%.
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Lilly has responded to the oral Wegovy challenge by cutting prices on its injectable Zepbound and launching its own oral competitor, Foundayo. Novo Nordisk, for its part, is reportedly pushing its suppliers for discounts in an effort to close the cost gap.
Overbought Charts and the Next Test
Technical indicators flash a note of caution. The stock currently trades above its 50-day moving average of €38.72 and its 200-day average of €40.80, but the 14-day relative strength index sits at 71.2 – a reading that typically signals an overbought condition. The 30-day annualised volatility of 31.61% leaves room for sharp swings.
With the 50-day line providing a support cushion roughly 12% below the current price, investors’ attention now shifts to the first wave of prescription data from UK pharmacies. The weeks ahead will reveal whether the combination of an oral launch and a Medicare expansion can offset pricing pressure and Lilly’s superior growth trajectory – or whether the stock remains trapped between strong demand and a deeply divided analyst base.
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Novo Nordisk Stock: New Analysis - 5 July
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