Novo Nordisk’s Rally Rests on Oral Wegovy’s Traction and Medicare’s Promise, with Q2 Earnings the Proving Ground
Published on 07/04/2026 at 10:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
For Novo Nordisk, July 1 marked a fresh chapter in the US weight-loss market. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program kicked in, capping out-of-pocket costs for eligible seniors at just $50 a month for Wegovy, a sharp drop from the prior outlay of well over $1,000. The program, initially running through the end of 2027, could unlock as many as 3.8 million patients. But the price advantage is neutralised from day one: Eli Lilly’s competing products sit under the same $50 cap, leaving efficacy and brand loyalty as the deciding factors. The stock had already priced in much of the optimism, climbing 19.52% over the past 30 days, though it slipped 1.20% on the Friday to close at €43.50 – still nearly 29% below its 52-week high of €61.20 from July 2025.
The real driver of the recent momentum lies elsewhere: the oral version of Wegovy. Launched in the US in January 2026, the tablet hit 3 million prescriptions by early June, making it the strongest GLP-1 market debut in American history. That success now extends beyond US borders. Britain’s MHRA approved the pill in June, granting the UK its first oral GLP-1 therapy for weight loss, with private patients expected to gain access within weeks. Novo Nordisk is also advancing a high-dose injectable version of Wegovy; data presented recently showed nearly 28% average weight loss after 72 weeks, versus 17% for the standard dose, a direct counter to Lilly’s Zepbound efficacy claims.
The competitive picture has only sharpened since April, when Lilly launched its own oral GLP-1, Foundayo, in the US. Lilly’s injectable Zepbound already demonstrated superior weight loss in head-to-head trials, and the uniform $50 copay under the Medicare Bridge removes price as a differentiator. Novo Nordisk’s own 2026 guidance already forecasts declining US sales due to lower net prices from a most-favoured-nation clause with the government, plus the loss of semaglutide patent protection in some foreign markets – generics have already appeared in India.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Adding to the bearish stack, an IT security incident in June exposed clinical trial data. The full impact remains unclear, hinging on the extent of the breach and whether the integrity of the underlying studies is compromised. On the technical side, the 14-day RSI sits at 71.2, pushing into overbought territory after the strong run.
The pipeline could still provide a jolt. Data on CagriSema, a combination therapy for diabetes and obesity, is slated for presentation at the upcoming ADA congress. If results beat expectations, they could give the stock another leg up. Meanwhile, management is negotiating global supply contracts to protect margins amid pricing pressure. With a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 12, Novo Nordisk trades well below its sector average, and a recent cash-flow analysis pointed to a notable undervaluation.
The next concrete test arrives on August 5, when the second-quarter results are due. Analysts at J.P. Morgan anticipate a possible guidance upgrade, driven by oral Wegovy’s sustained prescription growth and the first hard sales data from the Medicare Bridge program. Whether the positive trend holds will depend on whether the oral pill and the patient pool expansion can fully offset the intensifying competition from Lilly, the patent headwinds, and the fallout from the data breach.
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