Novo Nordisk's Summer of Reckoning: Medicare Opens the Spigot as Oral Wegovy Surpasses 3 Million Scripts

The countdown to July 1 has begun for Novo Nordisk, and the stakes could hardly be higher. On that date, the US health insurer Medicare will begin covering anti-obesity injections for the first time, unlocking access for millions of older Americans to the blockbuster drug Wegovy. Investors have already priced in the optimism: the stock has climbed more than 7% over the past week to €41.76, clawing back ground from a deep March trough. But with a share price still nearly 28% lower on a year-to-date basis, the road to recovery is far from smooth.

Under the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge Program, which runs through the end of 2027, eligible patients will pay a co-payment of just $50 per month. Novo Nordisk and rival Eli Lilly are supplying their drugs at a net price of $245 — a steep discount from normal list prices. For Novo Nordisk, the program represents a strategic chance to reclaim market share from Lilly. Wegovy is the only obesity drug proven to reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes, a powerful selling point for the older Medicare demographic. Early estimates suggest roughly 10% of Medicare enrollees meet the medical criteria for treatment.

While the Medicare catalyst is raw growth potential, Novo Nordisk's new oral formulation of Wegovy is already delivering results. In just over five months, the company has racked up more than 3 million prescriptions, and critically, nearly all of those are coming from first-time users rather than patients switching from the injectable version. That means the pill is expanding the addressable patient pool, not cannibalising existing sales. The durability of that demand will be closely watched by investors, especially once patients titrate up to higher doses and the question of adherence — whether prescriptions turn into long-term revenue — becomes paramount.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?

Supporting the stock from behind the scenes is an aggressive buyback programme. Novo Nordisk has committed up to 15 billion Danish kroner to repurchase its own shares by February 2027, and has so far spent about 5.5 billion kroner to buy back nearly 21 million shares, now holding roughly 1% of all outstanding equity. The buyback provides a floor under the stock during a period of intense pricing pressure in the US and mounting competition from Eli Lilly.

Looking ahead, the pipeline offers further catalysts. The REIMAGINE Phase 3 programme met all primary endpoints, showing significant reductions in blood sugar and body weight in adults with type 2 diabetes. The company expects an FDA decision on its next-generation weight management drug CagriSema in the fourth quarter of 2026. That decision could be a game-changer, but also adds an element of binary risk.

Yet headwinds remain. Novo Nordisk’s own guidance calls for a currency-adjusted sales decline of 4% to 12% for the full year, and operating profit is expected to fall in the same range. Technical indicators flash a warning: the relative strength index at roughly 70 signals the stock is becoming overbought after its recent rally. The real stress test comes on August 5, when second-quarter earnings are due. Analysts will be parsing the numbers for signs that Medicare patients are sticking with Wegovy — and that the oral pill’s high prescribing volumes are converting into sustainable revenue streams.

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