Nvidia Holds Its Breath at a Critical Level as Capital Returns and Chip Ambitions Converge
14.06.2026 - 13:12:56 | boerse-global.de
Nvidia’s stock is treading water at €177.28, a hair’s breadth from its 50-day moving average of €177.30, and the coming days will test whether the bulls or the bears gain the upper hand. Three events this week — the VivaTech keynote in Paris, the annual general meeting, and the payment of a sharply increased dividend — provide catalysts that could tip the balance either way. The tension is palpable: the shares have rallied roughly 42 percent over the past twelve months, yet they still sit about 12.5 percent below the May peak of €202.50.
The most significant strategic move of the past week, however, had little to do with hyperscaler GPU orders. Nvidia quietly entered the server CPU market with a new chip called Vera, built on ARM architecture and designed to take on Intel’s Xeon and AMD’s EPYC lines. The company claims Vera delivers 1.8 times the performance of comparable x86 processors on AI workloads, and crucially, it faces looser export restrictions than the company’s top-tier AI accelerators. That opens a backdoor into the Chinese market.
Chinese cloud providers are already testing more than 300 Vera servers, and Nvidia has begun accepting orders from customers in the country, with deliveries scheduled to start in August 2026. The company expects the Vera product line to generate $20 billion in revenue by the end of its fiscal year in January. That bet comes with considerable risk, however: Alibaba Cloud, Tencent and Baidu are all developing their own AI chips and have limited incentive to buy foreign CPUs in volume. Moreover, initial deployments will be limited to data centres outside China.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya sees the prize as large enough to justify the effort. On June 11 his team raised their forecast for the global server CPU market to more than $170 billion by 2030, up from a prior estimate of $125 billion, implying a compound annual growth rate of 37 percent. Arya points to agentic AI as the primary driver of that expansion.
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While Vera targets China, Nvidia is simultaneously deepening its ties with South Korea. Chief executive Jensen Huang held talks with executives from LG, SK, Hyundai, Naver and Doosan during an extended stay in the country. LG will build an AI factory focused on robotics, autonomous driving and GPU cloud services; with Doosan, Nvidia is expanding collaboration in physical AI and robotics. Analysts interpret the length of Huang’s visit as a signal that Nvidia wants to become a full-fledged AI ecosystem in Korea, not merely a chip supplier.
The capital-return story is every bit as aggressive as the product roadmap. Nvidia has raised its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share — a 25-fold increase — with the payment due on June 26 to shareholders of record on June 4. That payout follows a board authorization in May of an additional $80 billion for share buybacks, with no expiration date. In the first quarter alone, the company returned roughly $20 billion to shareholders.
Those distributions are backed by a soaring financial performance. Revenue in the first fiscal quarter hit a record $81.6 billion, up 85 percent year over year. The data-centre segment rose 92 percent to $75.2 billion. For the current quarter, Nvidia guides for around $91 billion in revenue — a figure that deliberately excludes any contribution from the China data-centre business. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company booked $215.9 billion in revenue, a 65 percent increase from the prior year.
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The annual general meeting on June 24, held online at 18:00 Central European Time, will put several items to a shareholder vote, including director elections, executive compensation and four shareholder proposals. One of those proposals calls for greater transparency on greenhouse-gas emissions from Nvidia’s products; the board recommends voting against all four. Also on the same day, Qualcomm is holding its own AI Day, where it plans to make CPU-related announcements.
The stock’s current position on the 50-day moving average carries technical significance. With a relative strength index of 45.6, the shares are neither overbought nor deeply oversold, leaving room for a move in either direction. The next major milestone on the calendar is the second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for August 26 after the US market close. Until then, Nvidia will be judged on its ability to execute in China without being shut out, to build a Korean AI ecosystem from scratch, and to convince shareholders that a 25-fold dividend hike is just the beginning.
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