Nvidia Rides a China Deal to $5.7 Trillion, but Bonds and Oil Are Turning Up the Heat
Published on 05/15/2026 at 22:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia’s market capitalization punched through the $5.7 trillion mark this week, briefly surpassing the entire value of silver as an asset class, after the US government authorised exports of its H200 chips to roughly a dozen Chinese tech giants. The milestone, reached on Wednesday, came on the back of a face-to-face meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was a surprise addition to the official delegation, flying aboard Air Force One alongside the chiefs of Apple, Tesla and Boeing — a diplomatic signal that markets seized on instantly. The Frankfurt-listed stock hit a record €201.05, but by Friday had slipped nearly 3% to €195.28 ($236.46 on the NYSE equivalent), as a fresh wave of macroeconomic anxiety swept the tech sector.
The China green light is conditional
Although Washington has given its blessing, the chips have not yet crossed the border. Chinese authorities are now reviewing their own supply chain security standards, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer clarified on May 15 that the final import decision rests with Beijing’s regulators. Potential buyers include Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com. The approval covers H200 chips from the Blackwell generation, but the actual delivery timeline remains uncertain until the Chinese side signs off.
Macro headwinds bite even as analysts raise targets
The exuberance from the China breakthrough collided with a deteriorating macro backdrop. US Treasury yields climbed toward 4.6%, while crude oil surged past $100 a barrel on renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing conflict with Iran. Rising inflation expectations have revived fears that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten further, a scenario that hits richly valued technology and semiconductor names hardest. Despite that pressure, Wall Street analysts rushed to lift their price targets in the wake of the China news. Wells Fargo raised its target to $315 from $265, projecting AI compute capacity will expand from 9.2 GW to 25.2 GW by 2029. UBS went to $275 from $245, forecasting first?quarter revenue of $81 billion — $3 billion above the official guidance. Cantor Fitzgerald set a $350 target, arguing that Nvidia’s production for 2026 and 2027 is effectively sold out due to the surge in agentic AI. Bank of America lifted its target to $320 from $300 and now sees the addressable market for AI accelerators at $1.2 trillion.
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Cloud budgets provide a fundamental floor
While macro sentiment wobbles, the underlying demand picture remains exceptionally strong. The largest cloud hyperscalers — Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet — have increased their 2026 capital expenditure budgets by 77%, to around $725 billion. The bulk of that money is earmarked for AI infrastructure, much of which flows directly to Nvidia’s data?centre chips. This capex wave forms a powerful ballast that could cushion the stock against any near?term rate?driven corrections.
All eyes on earnings and Vera Rubin
The next major catalyst is Nvidia’s fiscal first?quarter report, due on May 20. The consensus calls for revenue of roughly $78.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.77. Goldman Sachs sees potential for a $2 billion beat relative to that consensus. Any disappointment on the top line or the outlook would leave little room for error at current valuations — the stock has already gained more than 21% year?to?date on a local currency basis and over 63% in the past twelve months. On the product front, the new “Vera Rubin” architecture is set to launch this quarter, with mass production of server racks expected to begin in September or October.
A buyback buzz and a board change
Adding to the positive sentiment is speculation about a share buyback programme of up to $150 billion over the next twelve months. While unconfirmed, the rumoured scale has buoyed investor expectations. Meanwhile, Nvidia is reshuffling its leadership: former Goldman Sachs managing director Suzanne Nora Johnson will join the board of directors in July. The company’s ability to keep momentum hinges on the earnings scorecard next week, where the dual forces of a China tailwind and a tightening macro backdrop will meet in a single number.
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