Nvidia’s $1 Trillion Backlog and Palantir Tie-Up Paint a Picture the Market Isn’t Buying — Yet
Published on 07/01/2026 at 16:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers could hardly be more emphatic. In its first fiscal quarter of 2027, Nvidia posted revenue of $81.6 billion — an 85 percent surge from the same period a year earlier — with the data center division alone contributing $75.2 billion of that total. The full-year sales figure hit $215.9 billion. And yet the stock meanders 13 to 15 percent below its 52-week high of €202.50, lately changing hands around €172–€175. Even after a quarterly report that shattered records, the shares slipped. Chief Executive Jensen Huang admitted publicly that he cannot square the sell-off with the underlying business performance.
Part of the market’s hesitation may stem from the sheer scale of the bets Nvidia is placing. On 29 June 2026, the company teamed up with Palantir Technologies to build secure, sovereign AI infrastructure for U.S. government agencies and critical industries. The initiative integrates Nvidia’s open-source Nemotron models into Palantir’s AIP platform, creating a solution designed for sealed, classified environments where sensitive data and model weights never touch public networks. Analysts see the move as a meaningful expansion of Nvidia’s addressable market into highly regulated public-sector turf — a channel that could add years of demand visibility beyond the hyperscaler crowd.
That visibility is already staggering in raw dollar terms. According to industry estimates, Nvidia now sits on a combined order backlog for Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems that approaches $1 trillion for the 2026–2027 period. CFO Colette Kress, speaking at the Bank of America Global Technology Conference in June 2026, put the company’s supply commitments (non-cancellable delivery obligations) at roughly $124 billion. Businesses do not lock in nine-figure volumes years in advance unless they are utterly convinced of end-user demand. The figure has more than doubled from the prior year’s forecast.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The next hardware generation, Vera Rubin, entered full production on 1 June 2026, with first shipments to AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure and Oracle Cloud slated for the autumn. The new GPUs use HBM4 memory delivering around 22 terabytes per second of bandwidth — three times that of the Blackwell generation. Huang has framed this as a cornerstone of the “AI factory” era. Meanwhile, the broader ecosystem is gearing up: partner Coherent recently broke ground on a plant expansion in Sherman, Texas, to mass?produce indium?phosphide components essential for the co?packaged optics in future AI server racks.
Yet the stock’s retreat reflects a structural shift in how investors assess Nvidia’s growth trajectory. The first wave of the AI boom centred on training large language models — a compute?hungry task perfectly suited to Nvidia’s GPUs. That market is now pivoting toward inference and agentic AI, where memory, CPU performance and cost per inference step matter more. Huang has declared 2026 the “year of inference,” arguing that agentic software — AI that autonomously sets goals, uses tools and monitors outcomes — will generate a permanently higher inference load, layered on top of training demand rather than replacing it. Kress pushed back against the notion that custom chips could commoditise Nvidia’s hardware, calling that “actually the opposite” scenario.
Technically, the stock is neither in panic nor euphoria. The relative strength index sits around 43–46, and the shares trade roughly 5 to 7 percent above their 200?day moving average of about €164. The consensus analyst price target stands at €264.53, implying 51 percent upside from current levels. The outcome for the second half of 2026 hinges on the same dynamics that drove Nvidia higher in 2025: accelerating revenue growth, stable margins and hyperscaler demand that still outpaces supply. Lingering fears over an AI bubble, the cyclical nature of industry financing and rising geopolitical tensions keep many buyers on the sidelines.
The next concrete milestone for investors comes on 26 August 2026, when Nvidia reports second?quarter results after the bell. The focus will be on progress in easing HBM4 supply constraints and the first tangible revenue effects from Vera Rubin production. Until then, the market appears to be waiting for a signal that the trillion?dollar backlog is not just an ambitious forecast, but the opening act of a new phase — one where inference and government contracts begin to justify the valuation that the current numbers alone cannot.
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