Nvidia’s $250 Billion OpenAI Guarantee: When the Chipmaker Becomes the Bank
Published on 07/28/2026 at 14:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia shares slid 5% on Monday, wiping billions from the chipmaker’s market value, not because of disappointing earnings or a product miss, but because of a deal that hasn’t even been signed yet. The culprit: reports that Nvidia is negotiating a guarantee of up to $250 billion to help OpenAI lease computing capacity from a massive US data center project. For a company worth roughly $4.4 trillion, the outsized reaction reveals just how jittery investors have become about the financial scaffolding propping up the AI boom.
The proposed arrangement, first reported by the Wall Street Journal and not independently confirmed by Reuters, would see Nvidia backstop OpenAI’s ability to rent space in a 10-gigawatt data center campus being built by a SoftBank subsidiary on a former uranium site in Ohio. The entire complex could ultimately cost $500 billion. Nvidia is also reportedly co-financing an additional $350 billion in purchases. Neither Nvidia nor OpenAI has commented on the talks, which insiders describe as preliminary and subject to change or collapse entirely.
The sheer scale of the numbers is what has the market spooked. Nvidia’s most recent quarterly filing caps its total guarantee exposure for lease obligations at $3.5 billion. A $250 billion pledge would be roughly 71 times that figure — a leap so dramatic that it raises fundamental questions about how the company accounts for risk. The discrepancy between what Nvidia has formally disclosed and what it is now reportedly considering has fueled accusations that the chipmaker is effectively becoming a bank for its own customers.
The Circular Financing Debate Returns
Critics have long warned that Nvidia’s practice of financing clients who then turn around and buy Nvidia chips creates a self-reinforcing loop that inflates both demand and valuations. CNBC’s Jim Cramer articulated the charge bluntly: Nvidia invests in companies so those companies can buy Nvidia products. The new OpenAI talks give that argument fresh ammunition.
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The numbers bear out the trend. Nvidia’s purchase-related commitments for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 hit $119 billion, up from just $45.8 billion three quarters earlier. The OpenAI guarantee, if finalized, would more than double that figure overnight. Michael Burry, the investor famous for betting against the housing bubble, reportedly described the arrangement as further evidence of a self-perpetuating cycle, quipping: “Round and round it goes.”
A Bloomberg-quoted strategist put it more bluntly: if Nvidia guarantees more of OpenAI’s data center debt, it deepens a vendor-financing structure already under scrutiny. That looks as much like a sign of financial strain in the AI buildout as it does a demand signal. OpenAI itself lacks an investment-grade credit rating, which is precisely why the structure would allow SoftBank’s SB Energy to borrow against Nvidia’s balance sheet rather than its own.
Bulls See a Power Play, Not a Problem
Supporters of the deal frame it entirely differently. In their view, Nvidia is simply using its fortress-like balance sheet to lock in demand in a market where chips remain scarce. Companies building AI infrastructure are spending heavily, and the best processors are still hard to come by. A simple purchase order no longer suffices; customers must now tie procurement to financing commitments.
CEO Jensen Huang has repeatedly dismissed accusations of circular financing. Referring to an earlier investment in CoreWeave, he called the idea “absurd,” arguing that the sums involved represent only a fraction of what clients would need to raise in capital markets anyway. Morningstar analysts see the guarantee agreements primarily as a growth lever, helping Nvidia sell more hardware and accelerate AI adoption.
The bull case also rests on valuation. Nvidia’s forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at 24, with a PEG ratio of 0.57 — figures that suggest far more reasonable pricing than the dot-com era comparisons some critics invoke. The company generates $49 billion in quarterly operating cash flow, a far cry from the profitless tech darlings of 1999. The average analyst price target stands at $302.83, with 48 buy ratings and 10 strong buys.
Fresh Deals Add to the Noise
The OpenAI talks are not happening in isolation. Nvidia recently announced a partnership with South Korea’s SK Group targeting a combined business volume of more than $500 billion, primarily to secure memory chip supply. It also struck a new deal with startup SSI, which plans to tenfold its computing capacity. Together, these three pieces — the OpenAI guarantee, the SK Group partnership, and the SSI expansion — form a package worth well over $750 billion.
Supply chain data provides some counterweight to the bearish narrative. TSMC, Nvidia’s key manufacturing partner, reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $40.2 billion, up 36% year-over-year, driven by AI demand. The Taiwanese foundry raised its full-year growth forecast to just over 40% in dollar terms. Those numbers suggest real, not fabricated, demand for Nvidia’s chips.
The Market’s Verdict Is Still Out
Prediction markets captured the mood heading into the week. On Polymarket, traders assigned a 97.7% probability to further declines on Monday. The chance of Nvidia closing above $200 by month-end stood at just 47%. The stock now trades at €171.48, down 5.74% over the past week and 15.32% below its 52-week high of €202.50 from May. Annualized 30-day volatility exceeds 36%, signaling that the market has yet to fully digest the implications of the new financing wave.
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The technical picture offers two possible paths. If Nvidia holds above its 200-day moving average of €166.18, Monday’s sell-off may prove a footnote. A break below that level, however, opens the door to a test of the 52-week low at €139.78, turning a correction into a serious challenge for the entire AI rally.
What Comes Next
The next catalysts are concrete and imminent. A confirmation or denial of the OpenAI terms could reshape the narrative overnight. This week’s earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will also be critical — their commentary on capital expenditure plans will either validate or undermine the spending thesis that underpins Nvidia’s valuation.
If the OpenAI talks result in a signed agreement with clearly capped guarantees, the market may reinterpret the guarantee as a demand-securing mechanism rather than a distress signal, potentially driving a recovery toward the 50-day moving average and beyond. If the talks collapse, expand further, or trigger formal scrutiny of Nvidia’s debt concentration, the stock could slide toward the 200-day line or worse.
For now, Nvidia finds itself in an unusual position: its stock is being punished for trying to secure the very demand that justifies its premium valuation. Whether that tension resolves as strength or strain will determine whether this week’s sell-off becomes a buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper reckoning for AI’s biggest winner.
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Nvidia Stock: New Analysis - 28 July
Fresh Nvidia information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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