Nvidia's $5.7 Trillion Paradox: A China Void as Cloud Giants Pour In $725 Billion
Veröffentlicht: 16.05.2026 um 09:41 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia has muscled past silver to become the world’s second-most-valuable asset, with a market capitalisation of nearly $5.7 trillion. Only gold now sits above the AI chip titan. But the milestone masks a deepening contradiction: while hyperscalers are throwing hundreds of billions at cloud infrastructure, China—once a critical market—has effectively vanished from Nvidia’s direct sales ledger.
The stock has rallied roughly 16% over the past 30 days, fuelled partly by a US decision to allow certain Chinese companies, including Alibaba and Tencent, to buy Nvidia's H200 processors. Yet no chips have actually been shipped under that licence. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has blamed Beijing’s industrial policy, pointing to a push for domestic chip production. Tencent and Alibaba are indeed leaning more heavily on homegrown semiconductors. Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s CEO, crystallised the situation on April 30: “We used to have over 90% market share globally. In China, we are now at zero.”
That blunt assessment refers to direct sales. Grey-market activity continues separately, but the financial damage is clear. In its most recent fiscal year, Nvidia booked $19.67 billion in revenue from China, including Hong Kong. For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company is planning for zero revenue from the region. Bernstein had earlier projected a decline from 66% market share in 2024 to roughly 8%—Huang’s comment suggests the fall has been even steeper. Meanwhile, Huawei is doubling production of its Ascend 910C chip to 600,000 units this year, and Chinese manufacturers now account for about 41% of the AI accelerator server market.
None of that has dented Wall Street’s enthusiasm, thanks to a flood of capital from the four largest cloud operators. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms have signalled combined infrastructure investments of around $725 billion in 2026, a 77% jump year on year. That spending spree underpins a string of analyst upgrades. Bank of America lifted its Nvidia target to $320 from $300, Wells Fargo to $315 from $265, TD Cowen to $275 from $235, and Susquehanna to $275 from $250. Of 61 analysts covering the stock, 57 rate it a buy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The next catalyst is Nvidia’s earnings release on May 20 after US markets close. The company has guided for revenue of $78 billion, plus or minus 2%. The Wall Street consensus is slightly higher at $78.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.77. Investors will also scrutinise the outlook for the summer quarter, especially the fast-growing government AI segment, which tripled to over $30 billion last year.
On the product front, Nvidia is already seeding its next architecture. First samples of the Vera Rubin platform have been delivered, with volume production scheduled for the second half of 2026. The system promises up to ten times the inference performance per watt—a critical advantage as data centres face power constraints. The Computex trade show in early June could also bring news of a potential new CPU launch, expanding Nvidia’s addressable market.
The stock’s recent run hit an intraday record in Frankfurt, closing at €193.90 on Friday, though it slipped modestly on the day. In the US, shares touched a closing high of $235.74 on May 14, only to lose more than 4.6% the following day, wiping out roughly $170 billion in market value. The volatility reflects the tension between the cloud-driven demand surge and the China revenue hole—a gap that already cost Nvidia $4.5 billion in charges in the first fiscal quarter of 2026.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
When Nvidia reports on May 20, three questions will dominate: the pace of the Vera Rubin ramp, the stability of margins, and how much—if any—of China’s market can be reclaimed despite the political headwinds. For now, the bull case rests almost entirely on the hyperscaler boom, while the China risk remains a stubborn drag beneath the $5.7 trillion surface.
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