Nvidia’s $600 Billion Question: When the Chipmaker Becomes the Bank
Published on 07/28/2026 at 03:53 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The same day Nvidia lost its crown as the world’s most valuable company, it placed a billion-dollar bet on South Korea’s internet giant Naver. The juxtaposition captures a deeper tension: as the chipmaker pivots from selling silicon to financing entire AI ecosystems, investors are wrestling with whether this new model builds a moat or digs a hole.
Nvidia shares slid 5.02% to €172.88 on Monday, ceding the top spot by market capitalization to Apple. The decline accelerated as reports emerged that the company is in early-stage talks to guarantee up to $250 billion in debt financing for a massive Ohio data center project — one that SoftBank would build and OpenAI would lease. A separate chip-financing arrangement worth $350 billion is also under discussion, meaning Nvidia could theoretically backstop $600 billion in total credit exposure.
The mechanics are straightforward and unsettling. Traditional lenders are reluctant to finance OpenAI’s $500 billion infrastructure ambitions when the company — which lacks an investment-grade rating — is projected to lose $14 billion in 2026 and accumulate $115 billion in cumulative losses by 2029. Nvidia would essentially guarantee the loans its customers use to buy Nvidia hardware. Critics, including investor Michael Burry who has reportedly increased his short position, warn of a dangerous feedback loop: financed infrastructure growing faster than actual end-user demand.
That concern finds some support in the numbers. ChatGPT’s share of global web traffic has shrunk from 86.7% in January 2025 to 64.5% in January 2026, raising questions about whether the AI buildout is outpacing genuine adoption.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The Korea Counterweight
Yet Nvidia’s simultaneous move in Seoul tells a different story — one of direct equity investment rather than contingent liability. The company invested $1 billion for a 4.5% stake in Naver, while Brookfield committed up to $9 billion in project financing to expand Naver’s GAK Sejong data center into a major AI facility powered by Nvidia’s Blackwell chips and the upcoming Vera-Rubin platform.
This is “Sovereign AI” in action: Nvidia building out national infrastructure in partnership with local champions, locking in long-term demand for its most expensive chips. The Sejong facility is slated to grow from 55 megawatts to 200 megawatts by 2028, with a gigawatt target further out. Similar projects with South Korea’s SK Group reinforce the pattern.
For bulls, this dual approach — equity stakes plus financing guarantees — creates a self-reinforcing flywheel. Bank of America maintains its buy rating with a €266.21 price target, implying roughly 54% upside. The argument: global AI infrastructure spending is projected to hit $7.5 trillion over the next five years, and Nvidia is positioning itself to capture that wave regardless of who writes the checks.
Technical Crossroads
The chart tells a story of consolidation rather than collapse. Nvidia’s shares trade 4.03% above their 200-day moving average of €166.18, keeping the long-term uptrend intact. The relative strength index sits at a neutral 43.3, suggesting neither oversold conditions nor runaway momentum.
But the near-term picture is weaker. The stock is 4.20% below its 50-day average of €180.46 and 14.63% off the 52-week high of €202.50 reached in May. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at a lofty 36.06%. The fact that Apple reclaimed the market-cap lead on this pullback strikes some analysts as telling: investors may be favoring capital-light business models over Nvidia’s increasingly balance-sheet-intensive strategy.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Decisive Levels
The €166.18 mark — the 200-day moving average on a weekly closing basis — has become the line in the sand. Hold it, and the structural bull case built on sovereign AI projects remains intact. Lose it, and a correction toward the 52-week low of €139.78 comes into play, especially if macroeconomic headwinds intensify for richly valued tech names.
The next concrete catalyst arrives with fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings, expected in late August 2026. Three questions will dominate: whether international sovereign AI partnerships are already contributing meaningful revenue, whether Blackwell and Vera Rubin timelines remain on track, and whether gross margins can hold up as strategic investments mount.
But the more immediate test is whether the $250 billion guarantee talks with OpenAI materialize or collapse. That decision will determine whether Nvidia has formally entered the lending business — and whether its $600 billion question has an answer investors can live with.
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Nvidia Stock: New Analysis - 28 July
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