Nvidia's 9.3% Nebius Stake Comes With a Lock-Up That Removes Near-Term Overhang
Published on 07/21/2026 at 22:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A regulatory filing has pulled back the curtain on Nvidia's exact position in Nebius, confirming a 9.3% passive stake that investors had long speculated about — and the details reveal a structure designed to prevent any sudden sell pressure.
The Schedule 13G filing, dated July 13 and made public on July 20, shows Nvidia holds 22,256,412 Class A shares in the Dutch AI cloud provider. The vast majority — 21,065,936 shares — came from a pre-funded warrant with a nominal exercise price of $0.0001, acquired as part of Nvidia's $2 billion investment announced on March 11. Only 1,190,476 shares are held directly. Crucially, the warrant cannot be exercised or sold until September 11, effectively locking Nvidia's position for the near term and eliminating any immediate risk of the chip giant dumping shares.
Nvidia described the holding as passive, retaining sole voting and dispositive power but explicitly stating it has no intention of controlling Nebius. The filing form itself — a 13G rather than the more aggressive 13D — reinforces that message.
Market Reacts With a Multi-Day Rally
The disclosure triggered a sustained buying spree that began before the filing even went public. After the document was released on Monday evening, Nebius shares climbed 4.6% in after-hours trading. The momentum carried into Tuesday, with pre-market US trading adding nearly 7%. By Tuesday's close in Europe, the stock had reached €183.94, a 14.95% gain on the day, following Monday's finish at €160.02.
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Yet the stock remains well below its June peak. At its June 22 high of €261.00, Nebius traded 34% above current levels. Even after the recent rally, the shares are roughly 40% off the all-time high near $300, according to analysts.
Fresh Capital Backs Expansion Plans
The Nvidia news lands just days after Nebius addressed another investor concern head-on. On July 17, the company secured a $775 million secured credit facility, backed by its own GPU infrastructure, with interest at SOFR plus 2.5 percentage points and a term running through October 2030. The debt financing eased fears that Nebius might resort to dilutive equity issuance to fund its aggressive buildout.
Part of that capital is earmarked for a new data center in Finland with 310 megawatts of capacity — a building block in the company's strategy to develop more than five gigawatts of hyperscale AI cloud capacity by 2030. The company's first-quarter revenue hit $399 million, up 684% year-over-year, and management has guided for full-year 2026 revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.4 billion.
Analyst Upgrades and a Massive Backlog
The growth narrative has drawn fresh endorsements from Wall Street. Freedom Capital analyst Paul Meeks upgraded Nebius to "Buy" on July 21 with a $200 price target, citing expectations for more than tripled revenue in fiscal 2026 and a 336% jump in adjusted EBITDA. He noted the stock trades at just five times projected 2028 EV/EBITDA. Northland raised its target to $410, while Bank of America maintained its buy rating with a $280 target.
The bullish case rests heavily on a contracted revenue backlog exceeding $40 billion, anchored by agreements with Microsoft and Meta, plus a compute capacity deal with Reflection AI valued at over $1 billion. Meta alone signed a long-term contract in March worth up to $27 billion for AI infrastructure.
Insider Sales and Valuation Raise Caution Flags
Not every signal points upward. Insiders have sold approximately $140 million worth of shares over the past three months — a figure the secondary source puts at $141.8 million — suggesting some profit-taking within the company's own ranks.
Valuation metrics also give pause. The trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio stands near 60, more than double the five-year median of 27.81. On a forward earnings basis, that multiple balloons above 200, reflecting the extreme growth expectations baked into the stock.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A separate report that Nebius had held takeover talks with Israeli AI company AI21 Labs — recently valued at $1.4 billion — briefly weighed on the share price. Nvidia itself had been rumored to have its own interest in AI21 Labs, adding another layer of complexity to the story.
The Next Test Arrives July 29
With the Nvidia stake now formalized, the credit line secured, and the backlog growing, Nebius has assembled a powerful set of catalysts. But the stock remains a high-volatility name — its relative strength index of 44.3 signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for sharp moves in either direction.
The immediate focus shifts to July 29, when Nebius reports quarterly earnings. The numbers will need to demonstrate that the operational momentum can keep pace with the extraordinary expectations already priced into the shares.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 21 July
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