Nvidia’s Debt Debut and the Cracks in AI’s Scarcity Narrative
Published on 07/01/2026 at 22:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia’s decision to tap the bond market for the first time in five years is not a distress call — but it may be the most telling signal yet about where the AI cycle is headed. The $25 billion June issuance comes with a balance sheet that remains among the strongest in technology, yet the move marks a structural shift: the chipmaker is no longer content to finance its explosive growth purely from operating cash flow. Instead, it is locking in long-term capital at a moment when the scarcity story that has powered its extraordinary run is starting to show strain.
That strain is becoming visible in the numbers. Goldman Sachs’ head of delta-one trading, Rich Privorotsky, recently argued that the “scarcity narrative” around AI compute capacity is eroding. Large AI firms and hyperscalers are increasingly reselling their own hardware, putting downward pressure on GPU rental prices. At the same time, the cost of building new data centres has climbed to between $15 million and $20 million per megawatt — a combination that is squeezing margins across the AI infrastructure stack. A UBS survey adds further weight: 60% of companies surveyed have already cut their AI spending, with many pivoting to cheaper open-source models or alternative vendors.
The stock is feeling the heat. After touching a year-to-date high of €202.50 in mid-May, Nvidia shares have retreated 14.41% to around €173.32, slipping below the 50-day moving average of €181.34. The 200-day line at €164.03 still offers a support base, but the 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 44.5 — a level that suggests selling pressure has yet to exhaust itself. On a 12-month view, the stock still shows a 34% gain, and Wall Street’s consensus target of roughly €265 implies considerable upside. Yet the underlying momentum is clearly cooling.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
That cooling has attracted the attention of well-known bears. Michael Burry, the investor who famously bet against subprime mortgages before the 2008 crisis, has taken a short position against Nvidia, warning that AI stocks are overextended. While his trade carries symbolic weight more than market-moving heft, it reflects a widening divide in the narrative. On one side, bulls point to Nvidia’s overwhelming dominance in the data-centre market and a technological lead that rivals have yet to close. On the other, critics highlight macroeconomic headwinds — weak PC demand, a slowing gaming business in China, and the persistent drag of U.S. sanctions that Nvidia cannot engineer its way around.
The broader semiconductor sector is also catching the cold. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which surged more than 90% in the first half of 2026, has corrected sharply. Memory makers Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron all fell on Wednesday after a class-action lawsuit alleged price-fixing in DRAM chips. South Korea has responded by reaffirming its long-term commitment to chip investment, earmarking $590 billion for industry expansion. For Nvidia, the most immediate product concern centres on its next-generation Vera Rubin platform. The high-end “Rubin Ultra” configuration with four chips has been scrapped due to manufacturing issues at TSMC, though the standard Rubin design remains on schedule for summer deliveries to eight major cloud partners.
What unites these developments is a single question: can demand for AI hardware keep pace with the capacity that is being built? Nvidia’s $25 billion bond issue is effectively a bet that it can — a bet that requires faith in a multi-year infrastructure build-out that no single earnings cycle can fully fund. The company’s second-quarter revenue forecast of roughly $91 billion remains robust, but the shift in corporate spending habits and the softening of GPU rental rates suggest that the era of unfettered investment is giving way to a more disciplined phase. The quarterly report due at the end of August will be the first real test of whether the bulls or the bears have the better read on the next chapter.
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